Freight Waves says the bloodbath is coming...

So why would freight be plummeting when there are still empty shelves, 100+ container ships parked outside ports waiting, and fuel 2x higher than several mo ago? Cost of delivery has to be going up and supply chain is way behind…economically freight prices are inverted if true!

 

Your emotions are creating that altered reality for you due to what you agree with out of what you want and what you see and hear.

 

Dr Phil?????

 

That sounds almost like a driver shortage.

 

Won’t be any different than any of the other peaks and valleys that I’ve seen over the years. In the end, the tough times just separate the wheat from the chaff. The ones that go under were going to anyway, even without a downturn. Conditions may hasten it but it was going to happen eventually. When things tighten up you maybe have to exercise a little patience, or be a little more cautious about decisions you make, but it is just another day trucking really. The industry and a lot of the people in it are resilient. Truck Drivers are optimists. We’re like 7 yr olds that way, we KNOW in our heart that the next day, the next road or the next load is going to be better. If we weren’t that way the wheels would have stopped turning a long time ago.

 

Freight is not backed up off of California or at least nowhere near what it was.

Outbound California dropped more than anywhere else I've seen.
Couple months ago van loads from LA to Chicago was common to see $8,000
Now they are $5000-$5500.

 

I did this one for $14K the week of Christmas.

 

"A rash of trucking bankruptcies are on the way and it will be Bloodbath 2.0
Trucking has enjoyed the largest number of new entrants in its history over the past two years. New fleet registrations were up to 20,166 last month alone. This is unprecedented. The last peak was in August 2019; there were 9,511 new trucking fleets and that was in the middle of one of the weakest freight markets in history. New trucking registrations tend to lag market conditions, so we can expect new fleets to continue to enter the market, even after things soften. This will make the downturn that much worse. "

How many of the new "FLEETS" are single truck owners. I think most. It's not like these new fleets are adding a lot more drivers to the system. Most if not all of these new fleet owners were company drivers. SO to say the Fleet numbers increasing adds to the supply of available trucks is misleading.

Overall the system has the same number trucks available, just different labels.

Will the amount of goods need shipping decrease? That is the way trucking business has always been. Demand for transport always changes from year to year, month to month even day to day.

Some new entrants will fail, as always. Some established companies will close their doors, as always. This gives no reason to fear tomorrow.
The best any of us can do is plan for the worst, hope for the best and sleep well, because tomorrow will come no matter what.

 

5-5500 is the normal broker board rate for that lane not the bloated 8k you’ve seen for the last 3 years. You new entrants are in for a bumpy ride.

 

I think the repo conga line will start soon as well.

Fuel is too much for that $6K month truck payment.

Only bad thing is, the repo's will be the hugest risk, cause you know they will have had the guts run out of them, with no maintenance.