Future of Trucking - Automation concern

Discussion in 'Ask An Owner Operator' started by RussianBearTruckeR, Nov 29, 2018.

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  1. SteveScott

    SteveScott Road Train Member

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    What artificial intelligence? We're not talking about AI. Autopilot on a semi or fully autonomous vehicle is not AI.It's all programming with millions of lines of code.

    There simply isn't any possible way that a programmer can write enough code to contemplate every single contingency on the road. Unless they build a highway system specifically for autonomous cars and trucks, they will never work with our existing infrastructure. Autonomous vehicles don't exist yet except in the fantasies of people hoping to cash in on the tech and make a killing. But in their haste to get the tech out there before it's anywhere close to being ready, killing is exactly what they're doing. Just yesterday I read an article about a guy who was drunk and told his Tesla to take him home. He was noticed by CHP asleep at the wheel doing 70 in a 55. They had to get in front of him and slow down in order to stop the car. The city councilman was booked for DUI. There have been a number of well publicized deaths in Tesla and Google cars while driving in autopilot mode. Of course the car companies always blame it on driver error because the driver wasn't paying close enough attention. That's complete BS.

    Commercial airliners have had autopilot, auto takeoff and landing technology for decades, but it gets used in less than 1% of takeoffs and landings because it's still not as reliable as a human. Last month a brand new Boeing commercial jet crashed in Indonesia killing all aboard because the autopilot thought the plane was going to stall and placed it into a steep dive to increase speed. The pilots didn't react correctly and they crashed.

    Imagine a fully autonomous commercial truck heading down the highway when a deer jumps out takes out a few sensors making it unable to see stopped vehicles ahead. Heck there is even a reported case of a large moth taking out sensors on a Tesla. It's also been proven that snow and ice render many sensors completely useless and unable to function.

    Nope, it ain't gonna happen in our lifetimes.
     
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  3. mugurpe

    mugurpe Medium Load Member

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    the AI isn't AI like you see on tv. Autopilot is run using neural nets, which is to say a bunch of code based around building responses to data, based on lots of data. So nobody programs the autopilot to work, the autopilot neural net is fed heaps of data from the billions of miles that teslas have driven on our highways, so they take all of that real life driving data and then crunch the numbers on it and what the computer learns from that is what "programs" the car. It's sort of "self programming". That's a simplistic description to say the least, but It's not that someone sits down and writes down how to drive a car or truck.

    But yes, it's tricky and it's going to take a while. And trucks are much more complicated and dangerous that cars as I'm sure everyone here is aware.
     
  4. PE_T

    PE_T Road Train Member

    You clearly don’t know what artificial intelligence (AI) entails. Wikipedia has an entry for Artificial Intelligence. There, you will find a tab for “Applications” and within that tab a section for “Automotive.” It reads:

    “Advancements in AI have contributed to the growth of the automotive industry through the creation and evolution of self-driving vehicles. As of 2016, there are over 30 companies utilizing AI into the creation of driverless cars. A few companies involved with AI include Tesla, Google, and Apple.”

    Artificial intelligence - Wikipedia
     
  5. PE_T

    PE_T Road Train Member

    The article I posted before says that they have already been driving these vehicles without a human at the wheel:

    “Although Waymo has been driving passengers without any humans behind the wheel in its free pilot program, it decided to be less daring with the new commercial service [Waymo One].”

    Tesla’s Autopilot, which is not fully autonomous, requires the driver to pay attention to the road just like the cruise control. With Autopilot, a car can maintain the center of the lane, brake/accelerate if needed in a lane, and change lanes if the driver chooses.

    Just about any new technology will involve deaths. There is no way around it. The invention of cars, for example, involved many, many deaths, and it still continues to cost the lives of thousands of people every year in the US. However, the benefits from these new technologies have been tremendous in the long run.

    These self-driving vehicles have various sensors, and probably also have extra ones just in case. I am pretty sure they have already thought about these issues. As for winter conditions, we can shut down operations and/or have a human take over. Self-driving vehicles clearly won’t replace all humans from day one—if ever.
     
  6. SteveScott

    SteveScott Road Train Member

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    Ah I see. So by linking to Wikipedia you have determined that I don't know what AI entails? I guess my 30 years programming C/C++ in Unix for the insurance industry was all for nothing.

    Look, feel free to call it AI or whatever floats your boat. The bottom line is that it's all coding and mapping. Driving a vehicle requires common sense, and those two words don't exist in programming or AI. On the roads and highways of the world, there are an infinite number of variables that are constantly changing. You're also forgetting the biggest hurdle to autonomous vehicles, and that's liability. When a truck driver causes an accident, the victim can sue the driver, their insurance company, and the registered owner of the truck. When an autonomous vehicle makes the wrong choice and hurts or kills somebody, the victim can sue the car manufacturer, the designer of the software, and a long list of other companies who had a hand in developing the car and the technology. Each death or serious injury could win awards in the hundreds of millions compared to a couple million from a driver, insurance and a trucking company. There is a wrongful death lawsuit brewing now against Tesla and it's subcontractors who designed the autopilot system. My prediction is that if the outcome goes in favor of the victim's family, it will shake the autonomous market to the core and open their eyes. I've always said that liability exposure will kill this industry before it has begun.

    From your Wiki link:

    Another factor that is influencing the ability for a driver-less automobile is the safety of the passenger. To make a driver-less automobile, engineers must program it to handle high-risk situations. These situations could include a head-on collision with pedestrians. The car's main goal should be to make a decision that would avoid hitting the pedestrians and saving the passengers in the car. But there is a possibility the car would need to make a decision that would put someone in danger. In other words, the car would need to decide to save the pedestrians or the passengers. The programming of the car in these situations is crucial to a successful driver-less automobile.
     
    Dogman22 Thanks this.
  7. PE_T

    PE_T Road Train Member

    You were the one criticizing me because I brought up AI. I showed you that AI does, in deed, have a function in self-driving technology. Do I need a degree in computation to know that? I hope not.

    So there are hurdles. Are they impossible to overcome? No. People were probably having the same thoughts about aircraft. Now they are all over the place and available to the public. I have no problems with skepticism on this topic, but I see lots of people (like in this forum), saying it’s full of hot air, when it’s really not. Not when there have been years of constant testing by over 30 companies.

    Insurance will definitely be a problem, but it’s all about setting an appropriate coverage and passing laws that help guide these accident cases. With all the issues with self-driving cars, it should still have much less accidents compared to people. If not, that will be the end of it.
     
  8. SteveScott

    SteveScott Road Train Member

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    So you take a differing opinion as criticism? You posted a link, I stated what part of it I didn't agree with. If I'm criticizing you, trust me, you'll know it. What we're having is called a discussion. If everybody having a discussion agreed with everything the other person was saying, the world would be a very boring place.
     
  9. All4Safety

    All4Safety Light Load Member

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  10. PE_T

    PE_T Road Train Member

    Here we go again. Do I need to quote Merriam-Webster Dictionary? Criticisms don’t have to be explicit.
     
  11. SteveScott

    SteveScott Road Train Member

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    Wow, you're a true snowflake aren't you?

    Hint: That was an explicit criticism.

    I'm done running in circles with you. Grow some thicker skin.
     
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