Future state of Trucking overall

Buy your trucks I’m Nov of ‘20 and catch the upswing in ‘21. I’ll come back to this thread at that point as it’ll age well.

 

I did not mean to imply a house would increase in value.

I meant for people to realize the difference between a house and a home.

Both are investments.

But a house is an investment seeking future or immediate profit.

A home is an investment in YOUR future. In could lose 75% of its value tomorrow. After paying $250k But that doesn’t matter if your intent is to live there the rest of your life. You buy it with that intent in mind. The value is in the fact you can have a roof over your head as your children grow up, and you grow old.

 

Most of those people bought houses priced much higher than they could actually afford. Sold to them using a sub prime rate. When that rate expired, and adjusted to prime, their payments went up. It’s basic math.

 

Even now people are paying more for houses than they can afford. I'm strange I guess, I figure if you can't put at least 30% down you can't afford it, and you don't make payments on stuff like fridges and everything else you see payments offered on.

 

Well, we will see two bubbles burst.

One is the auto market, after again leasing going to bite them in the butt, and the sub-prime lending to get people into cars, it will be 2008 all over again.

The other is the housing market, not to make this political but no one bothered to fix the problems in the housing financing, from (again) not stopping sub-prime lending and mortgage back securities,

When these two happen, I hope that the government is forced to eliminate sub-prime lending, mortgage backed securities and not bail anyone out this time,

 

I try to express the concept of forming strategic alliances, but very few people listen. They will be the first to demand help when the SHTF though. Their pleas will fall on deaf ears. The man who opens his doors to help others in a full blown crisis is going to get wiped out in short order.

BTW: Has the government fortified the power grid against a possible EMP attack? Probably not. They don't care.

 

With the FED being hostile to business and economic growth, they are raising interest rates.

Historically, every time the FED does this interest rate increase, it has resulted in economic Disaster of different levels.

I'm expecting trucking to start a slow decline WITH the economy unless Trump continues his deregulation agenda much more aggressively to keep things moving.

The flood of all these new trucks will cause equipment pricing to nose over as it's mostly stock order and the market will saturate within about a year.

This will result in layoffs as companies see a rapid turnaround in New truck orders and the resulting massive reduction in parts demand will start to swing the economy downward as well...

Result? Freight needs will slide and markets will become cut throat again as they always do.

Carriers are in for a rough time ahead once freight drops and now being handicapped in efficiency with the ELDs.

I believe this is the long term plan anyway as the push for Autonomous is heavy. This is also part of the reason the Giants wanted the ELD mandate... Long term kill factor for small guys ahead of the market shift into Autonomous.

The market will be ripe for the picking by the mega carriers and they will also be able to lay off employees once the robots start doing the driving.

Sounds pessimistic?
Unfortunately, that's the real trend going on. If you want to remain long term , specialized freight is your best hedge against the changing logistics industry.


Oh.. pay attention to China's acquisitions lately in the global Shipping Market as well as natural resources. They are expanding their control of markets globally, expect them to be rather unfriendly doing business in the future. (Oils, metals, ,foods and consumer goods control...)
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They'll never do anything about borrowing money to people who can barely pay it back, they'd be accused of denying people the right to a house or something.

 

Very well said. The first half of your post is already happening. I’ve posted a lot on here about it but everybody still is blinded by the great rates rather then seeing the downward trend.

Trump had some very harsh words for the Fed. And I believe is going to fend off anymore rate hikes or will likely start firing people. Gotta keep the rates low to help when we go through that yo-yo effect due to the saturation.