Future state of Trucking overall

Maybe this one needs to be moved to the political section??

 

It's borderline for now but we're watching. I'd like to see it stay here because there's a better variety of helpful information and it's usually well presented.
Going to Political is a last resort. Once a thread goes there all the usual bickering and posturing ruins the intent of the thread.

 

You're asking for an exact timetable for things that are almost impossible to predict.
Trucking, historically, is a business with a lot of uncertainty. If the economy is decent, trucking usually is too.
People who say they can predict the economy for the future, or any length of time, or with any great accuracy should also demonstrate walking on water...just to prove their credibility.

 

I think trucking is about done. That's why I spent $75k on equipment this year. Less and less trucks on the road. Less and less freight moving by truck. We're all going down. We'll all be servants in Chinese households inside of a decade. Man, can't wait.

 

I anticipate the freight slow down early Q1 could be another indicator with a bigger dip than last year, followed by the seasonal false bump from mid mar- early july. Around that point the markets will be pretty saturated from the new truck frenzy and freight will be slumping.

Plus with the fed being hostile to the economy by bumping interest rates ...I think things will start getting real competitive early Q3 or before. The slide has started downward i just hope it doesn't happen too fast after the holiday rush.

Early Q3 excess capacity... and we don't know what could add to the poor business environment with the political war in DC.
There's allot of wild cards right now..

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Oil is down hovering around $60. Freight always slows the cheaper it is. As diesel comes down so does the loads.

 

Agreed,
When the economy gets soft, the freight starts getting soft too.

 

If I understand correctly, an investment in a home (that never gets sold) is an investment in security. You can't be foreclosed on (if it's paid off), you can't be evicted, they can't fail to renew your lease. You have a place to live.

The second part of that I want to mention is that when you buy a house, your housing costs are fixed. Generally, house prices go up and rents go up. Once you buy your house, that is the end of the increases in housing costs.

From a security standpoint, owning a home really reduces risks in case of a calamity. Living on disability or early retirement AND having to pay ever increasing rent is not a good scenario.

 

Housing has had many corrections. I didn’t realize how much of a regular thing it is.Its all relevant to the economy and interest rates supply and demand and local economics. The 2008 hit being the worst since the depression.Interest rates now going up now in order to give them some leeway to drop when needed.I personally would benefit from a little inflation as my current home is mortgaged at 3.375%.Normal inflation rates and good economy would be nice.The feds constantly trying to keep a balance. They especially don’t want inflation now with all the money currently locked in at low rates.Losing proposition for Bankers. The real amazing thing to me is the reality of how much a little bump in numbers makes such a big impact. I remember Guys that bought houses before the inflation and high interest rates of 70s telling me I was basically screwed because of rate of pay cost of houses interest rates etc in 1985. All things are manipulated to remain somewhat attainable when it comes to housing. A correction is already on the horizon.Look at Phoenix Las Vegas and the other major markets. As soon as building starts to slow due to demand being met.Hopefully it won’t hurt toooo bad. I myself learned the hard way on last house that sometimes prices go down. Essentially wiped out all the equity or so called profit on paper I had earned over 13 yrs on 2 houses.Now I have a new house and bought at a good price ( foreclosure) and after 6 yrs has doubled in price. Seriously thinking of selling in next couple years and living in Truck for a few more yrs then buying something small.Bottom line using house as an investment is tricky.Not something to be counted on as always increasing in price.Best Buy only what’s needed. Otherwise the American Dream can quickly become a nightmare. I Lived through it and survived. Had I been older I would have been done for good.