Honest answers

That article was written in February . A report from Truckinginfo doesn't look too positive
From Truckinginfo
"Tonnage Tonnage Shows Month-to-Month Improvement, But Freight Outlook Still Bleak

12/29/2008
The American Trucking Associations' advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 1.7 percent in November, marking the first month-to-month improvement since June 2008 -- but in real numbers, freight volumes remain weak.

The index contracted a total of 6.3 percent from June through October. In November, the seasonally adjusted tonnage index equaled 110.7 (2000 = 100). In October, the index was at the lowest level in five years.

Despite the increase in the seasonally adjusted measure, the freight outlook remains bleak. Specifically, the not seasonally adjusted index, which measures the change in actual tonnage volumes reported by the fleets before any seasonal adjustments, fell 15.4 percent to 101.3 in November.

The seasonally adjusted index declined 1.8 percent compared with November 2007, which was the second straight year-over-year decrease.

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello cautioned against misinterpreting the slight increase in freight tonnage as indicative of the beginnings of an economic turnaround. Freight volumes remain weak, he said. "Don't let November's increase in the seasonally adjusted index fool you," said Costello. "Freight volumes were down substantially before any seasonality is taken out of the data," Costello added. Tonnage was also off from year-over levels showing the weakness in freight. Costello said he expects freight to further weaken as the economy contracts through the first half of 2009.

ATA calculates the tonnage index based on surveys from its membership and has been doing so since the 1970s. This is a preliminary figure and subject to change in the final report issued around the 10th day of the month. The report includes month-to-month and year-over-year results, relevant economic comparisons, and key financial indicators. "

 

Nerve racking.

Mike

 

The problem is the lack of 'promising careers' of any kind .. especially for us downsized/outsourced workers over 50. I have over 15+ years in construction and 15+ in computers/technology .. both industries are hammered right now. Construction is basically at a stand still and will be for much of the year I'm afraid. And the technology field is experiencing the same problem that driving is .. too many applicants for existing jobs. With tech jobs going overseas faster than they are being created locally, and tech schools pumping out students faster than CDL mills, there are way too many applicants for the available jobs. I apply for tech jobs way below my experience and pay, and would be happy to get one, but am often told they are getting 2000-3000 applications for each job opening. Having certain 'certifications' can help, but getting them is expensive and takes months in many cases.

So for now I keep applying for any construction, computer, or trucking job I see ... and any others that might keep me afloat ... and hope for the best. It'll get better .. it has to .. just hope it's fairly soon.

 

It is rough out here, for many, if not all of us. I wish I had an answer for you. But when things start to pick up, trucking will be the first to feel it. I am seeing a little movement in the specialty flat bed stuff, mostly closing down or moving shops and factories. Not a good sign, but will hopefully get us through till spring.

Mike

 

Well, to get you started:

Even though the trucking industry has suffered from a falling economy, the effects will be only temporary, Costello says.
"I do believe that, once the economy picks up, there will be a big demand for drivers again," he says. "This should be seen as a temporary, short-term thing. In the long run, the demand for drivers is going to be very strong."
And when the economy does pick up, the trucking industry will be one of the first industries to feel the surge.
"We are forecasting a very mild recession at this point in the first half of the year, but much better growth in the second half of the year as all the stimulus works its way through," Costello says. "We think trucking could see (improvements) even earlier than that ... possibly by the second quarter."

So there we are on that point. Trucking jobs, while down now, will pick back up. They say 2nd quarter. I say maybe, maybe not, but either way now is a great time to be a FNG (####### New Guy) as it's easier to learn the job when you have time to do it as opposed to being pushed all the time bacause there's too much freight.

As for YRC, I don't know their business, but I'd suspect that they're letting drivers go because they're union employees and union employees cost more to operate than non-union employees. This drives up the cost of shipping, which will reduce the number of loads the company handles and therefore idle drivers.

Schneider I think, was a knee-jerk reaction to the slumping economy coupled with their parctice of over-hiring drivers knowing some would wash out/quit/etc. They realized that they had more and more guys and gals staying and the schools became an expendable line item on their P&L statement, so they ditched them. Schneider is still hiring expierienced drivers, I've been told but I would expect the schools to come back once the economy picks up.

There will always be jobs for good drivers, recession or not. New or otherwise. People will always be quitting, moving on, having accidents, getting fired, retireing, etc, so there will always be room for noobs.

 

So exactly what would you recommend for a hard working person without a job in this economy, who happens to be over 50?

Retail?

Cleaning up at McBurger?

Swamping at a dive bar?

Personally, I like the paycheck I'm getting. Don't apprieciate being away from home all the time, but that's the way the OTR cookie crumbles. Remember, "they" all say that "they" don't discriminate for age when hiring, but most employers really do. Trucking seems to be an industry that's just happy to have hard working employees who can manage to be curteous, and can wear their pants without their underwear hanging out!

 

Nothing wrong with an older person getting into trucking. In fact being mature would be a good step in helping turn this trade back around.

 

Tread carefully, Mr. NoTarps!
Age doesn't always equal maturity!

haha
Russ

 

You just don't get it , do you ? That article was written in February '08 predicting the second quarter of '08 and yeah , things got better . Instead of freight being down 1.5% from last year it was only down 0.9% . Yes there will always be jobs because people quit . Why do they quit ? Because they can't get enough miles to make a living . There will always be jobs for people that want to work for poverty level wages .

 

Agreed. I was implying someone that has worked all their life compared to someone who hasn't.