ICC vs FMSCA ?

I'll tell you what. CSA is going to be a money maker for those of us that keep a good score. Once the flood gates open on CSA score mimimum levels to haul certain loads the spot market is going to shoot-up.

And I know I will get hammered on this BUT if the HOS go from 11 to 10, that will decrease capacity in the contract freight market putting more on the spot market. And how many of us really have to worry about the 11th hour? Very few of us smaller carriers but a lot of the mega carriers have to plan around that.

 

I hope you're right Bill but I don't share your optimism.

When LEO's pull the small fleet owner's truck over at 9:00 A.M. and give him a ticket for a headlight out (in the daylight) that was working when he fueled at 5:00 A.M., his last stop, I don't see how anyone is going to keep a good score.

And the Mega-Companies will always figure a way to tip the scales in their favor. They have the money and the political connections to make what ever comes their way work in their favor.

I don't see any big changes coming behind CSA. I think it will be a different flavor of the same stinking pile. I sure hope you are right and I am wrong though.

As for the question asked by the OP. Answer this question, "When have you seen the govenment get involved in anything and make it better?"

 

3B, your points are valid about the CSA causing a spot market spike, but I don't think we are looking at any real appreciable about of money. A little more perhaps yes, but not the jackpot. This reminds me of back when Bush was president and fuel was cheaper than it is now under b-ho. Back then the media ran daily stories about all the truckers going under, and we all thought of it as sort of a market correction whereas there'd be less trucks and those of us left standing would see rates go up significantly. Never happened though. It's like as a kid watching cartoons and thinking that someday Wille E Coyote would catch the roadrunner.

I've come to the conclusion that for rates to significantly higher, there will have to be an outright ban on airride suspensions, power steering, inverters, satalite radio, cell phones, etc. Basicaly we go back to driving rugged beasts and always looking for a pay phone, like we did in the 80s. Truckers would leave this sport in droves. Then again, if only that ###### roadrunner couldn't run through a fake tunnel painted on the side of a rock......LOL

 

Big difference between fuel the fuel spikes and what we are moving towards with CSA scores. The fuel spikes was a non-story. I remember laughing at these reports with guys standing next to trucks leased onto carriers that had FSC. I was clear the reporters only research is that fuel went up x%.

CSA is a program that was designed by the insurance industry to predict accidents. When FMCSA plugged the data from the past into the system it was very accurate. The implementation has only minor changes from what the insurance industry wanted.

Two things are going to happen in the coming years as more data is available.

First, CSA scores are going to be the primary factor in rating a carrier and driver for insurance. It is going to be expensive for a new independent O/O that only has no carrier CSA score. And a carrier with drivers that have average driver history but poor CSA scores is going to see a big jump.

Second, shippers will have to start setting score levels for any carrier haul their loads. Major companies are already saying that they are planning for significant rates increases because it has become clear that they will no longer be able to be kept out of the litigation loop because now they have a tool to help them choose safe carriers. And to not use it will open them up to litigation. This is not speculation but major topics in the different industries with large shipping needs. Pick an industry, look up a trade show and you are likely going to see a session that is addressing this issue.

And a third item of change that I think will happen is that you will see more companies that you look to haul direct freight with asking to be named as an insured.

Will this be like flipping a switch some time next year? No. It will happen over the next 3-5 years.

And what effect it will have on pushing the poor carriers out of the market will remain to be seen.

 

ICC owner operators made a lot more money than owner operators under FMCSA. However, getting your authority was virtually impossible. Hmmm, let me think, more money or having authority? Not to mention all the private fleets where company drivers could make a good living with good hometime, and even retirement benefits.

 

If they can combine the effects of having a poor CSA score, with the programs that they hope to implement and be able to enforce to keep the same bad players from continually creating new carriers every time they have a problem, then maybe rates may creep up slightly. But I'm guessing they still won't keep place with future inflation and more expenses incurred from new government regularions.