Impact of automated driving on Trucking industry

Meh, that's fluff written to get the investment managers to buy Toyota stock when there's no real product to back it up. It's called "vaporware" for a reason.

 

These "experts" have been saying this for 30+ years now. I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

 

I keep seeing commercials for cars with brakes that apply automatically if the car's about to hit something, and keep thinking about the posts on here about trucks with those systems that apply full braking when there's nothing to hit, and those Toyotas that accelerate on their own. Yep, sensors never go bad. But just because it doesn't work doesn't mean they won't mandate it.

 

Some of the auto drive systems involve a train of cars following a human operated truck on the interstate...I think if this tech ever does make it into trucks, we will still have to have operators in the cabs, were just too large of a risk to have it unsupervised, plus the systems will require sensors in the roadway, that not all roads will have, and we still have to have humans to fuel and back them into the dock, even if they do become fully automated then shippers and recivers will need to have more yard jockeys, and a robot can't hook and unhook a trailer

 

A more realistic application would be to use the technology to implement land trains in the United States.

The concern with the fly by wire systems in vehicles is that they were derived from military technology but do not have the redundancy that the military system.

There are many ideas that may be feasible but can not be implemented when they are developed for various technological reasons.

Twin overhead cam engines have been around since the 30's, grandpa won Indy with one back then, but they were not used in a production vehicle until recently.

The tilt rotor osprey is actually based on a design from the 50's. in the mid 50's the prototype logged about 2000 flight hours. It was a technical success but with the technology of the time it was not able to carry a useful payload.

The GPS that we all use for navigation has had an interesting development from it inception as a navigation aide for the USNAVY to what it has become. It is a great system but it does have issues and it has resulted in some unintended consequences.

I could just go on but I will stop

 

And none of those have led to a workable auto drive system.

And forget redundancy: it'll cost too much--'cuz, y'know, a human life is only worth $11.47 [/Ford ExplodaPinto]

 

I personally don't think it's as far fetched as you might think. Just have to stop thinking GPS GPS GPS and think more of a localized system.
These are the things you would need:

1) GPS (lol, I know, but its needed not the main part though) to give the vehicle point A to point B directions. needs to be easily adjusted by operator to make sure route is 100% legal and feasible. Technology exists
2) Video cameras with software tha uses for lack of a better term 'target aquisition' for lane markings and road obstructions/debris and sign interpretation. Technology exists
3) National standardization of signs and road markings with incorporated RFID. Including size, color, font, and font size. Technology exists
4) Vehicle speed sensors, g-force sensors, altimeter (for rate of accent, and decent). Technology exists
5) Radar. Technology exists
6) Computer fast enough to integrate and run all these programs simultaneously along with software to incorporate these technologies. Technology exists (computer speeds) or is feasible (software needs to be written but is doable with a whole boatload of clever IF, THEN, DO, DOWHILE statements)

For a proof of concept you would need to pick a state, say Colorado, It has all the goodness, mountains, plains, city, rural towns, and suburbia. along with a nice mix of weather conditions. You would need to standardize the signs statewide and include RFID. That's the big part. Then you could throw one or any number of vehicles with above integrated components onto the highway and they would be autonomous. WITH 100% OPERATOR OVERSIGHT at least
till we know it actually works.

I'm not saying this is right around the corner, but it is possible with technology we already have. So no I don't think it's is very far fetched.

 

Sure, this technology exists. Now what happens when snowfall covers the lane markers? How about lane stripes that have faded to nothing by the end of winter? How will it respond for construction detours, when the lane markers no longer apply? Would it recognize the "new" lane designated by intermittent cones or barrels?

This technology might be able to be used if additional infrastructure is built. For example adding roadside sensors every 100 yards on either side of a roadway. If a company was willing to add sensors as infrastructure along the lines of the fiber optic cable network, then charge for using that infrastructure, then it might begin to be possible.

Ultimately any issues with technology failure (and it WILL fail) will result in accidents and liability. I doubt that this would fly politically. Do YOU want your family driving next to an automated truck? I think the ACTUAL future will be automated assistance for drivers, along the lines of current technology for preventing tail gaiting.

 

My guess is that it would be cheaper/more effective to expand rail lines to carry freight long distance, with most drivers staying local/regional to connect between rail and warehouses. I can see technology assisting drivers, but i don't think you'll see many trucks completely driverless.

 

When you're done with school have you thought about working in the government? I was station at the EOD TECHNOLOGY R&D division at Indian Head MD back in 1988 and we had some really cool stuff coming out as far as robotic equipment. I was the only active duty there and the rest were all civilian engineers. I was in the heavy equipment dept where we had Bulldozers, Excavators, and other types of construction gear. You're right about seeing this type of technology any time soon. We always had to have a person at the other end, never totally dependent for itself. Even now when they fly missions overseas and bomb the enemy there's a pilot in a nice air conditioned trailer in NV that's doing the deed. I don't know where 5 years from now came from but it's just dream land. More like 150 years.