Market Predictions

I've observed and thus speculate that cycle ratio is roughly 1:2 or 2:5
For one good period, you have to endure at least twice as long before you see a sustained substantial improvement.
18 months is what the last euphoric cycle lasted, so we'll see it again in 2nd - 3rd Qtr of 2025.
There'll be intermittent but rather short spike periods. For example, this holiday season, you can sustain running at $2.5 per 2000-3000 weekly miles, which should be enough for an average owner operator with own authority not to worry about going under. Especially, that the fuel, at least in Midwest, can be found for less than $4 per gal.

 

Once the "O/O's who are clueless in business ops and overpaid for their junk equipment finally go down the toilet in the next 4-6 months, rates will stabilize and it will be back to a somewhat normal.

 

There's been 12 trucking recessions in the last 50 years. The average downturn lasts from 9 to 15 months. Choose which month of 22' you will begin counting from.

Supply side issues of fuel will not be resolved with temporary demand destruction of projected global recession so diesel prices are projected to average $4.20ish for 23'.

Labor component doesn't appear to be open to clawing back wage gains at established firms which is being used as leverage for a floor to 12 month duration contract rates.

Mega's and single truck O/O's are the safest. Mega's because of economy of scale and allocation of equipment and ST o/o's that are financially responsible because they can absorb the wage reduction as its mingled with company profits.

Everything between is at risk because of maintenance, fuel, and wages.

Late spring early summer bump if lucky and infrastructure push proceeds. Dislocation between commodity supply and demand is not an overnight fix so inflationary spikes should be unsurprising when things ramp up.

 

This is an obvious but overlooked point. Ive personally never heard it voiced and while i guess i kinda knew it, ive never actively thought of it in that way.

With a much broader brush, megas already dont care about workers, but size matters, so they survive with a bit of profit when things are down, larger shareholder profit and a pittance if they bother for their workers. Sole proprieterships, since the owner is the worker, profit sharing (and pain) is always shared between company and worker

 

Yeah mega's could give a blank less about workers, they also have some backhanded strategies with their "logistics" arm that have been extremely profitable lately.