Oldeskool has bailed out

I thought about 2008 and 9 after i asked that. The other down years that happen cyclically about ever 3 years dont compare in my opinion. Not worth weathering since i expect it to last at least another year. My opinion is get out before it eats all the money made the last 2 years.

 

I think it’ll be more like 6 months, but I don’t blame you or anyone for cashing out before you lose any gains that were made. I actually wish more people would.

 

Sorry that was a typo. It was covid booming from the summer of 2020 to about Feb of 2022 so about 18 months not 22 years. An 18 month spot market boom is waaaay abnormal. We'll likely never live to see anything like it again.

I was a full time owner operator one income household supporting my family for 13 years on 100% spot market freight. There's nothing hobby about that. A couple of things I could have a do over on and I'd still be doing it but there ain't no do-overs. And I was unwilling to leverage myself to stay with it. Now that I'm out I don't miss it at all and could actually kick myself in the rear for not getting my current job 14 years ago instead of foolishly buying a truck.

 

I might agree if next year wasnt an election year when theres so little faith in the economy.

 

You may be right. Election years usually are sluggish. I don’t have a crystal ball.

 

###### I did not want to be the problem being a hobby spot market guy. I tried to be the hard working spot market guy but I guess no need now. Ha ha

 

Honestly reflecting on it more @OldeSkool id be lieing if i said i had not considered shuttering my doors for a year or three and going back company for a while. Right now im in the green with my investment into my own business. I have less debt now then when i came in. I did lose out on my truck sadly but in the end have broken nearly even, even there. Another few months if i buckle down and JUST focus on truck payments rather then constant upgrades and repairs. I can have my rig and the new APU payed off in full and walk away with less then 30k in personal debt and only 2500ish in business debt when i came in with almost 100k and 70k respectivly.

But parking the truck for a year or two i could stop chaseing down the next major repair. Stop playing whack a mole with what worn out peice of junk falls off my truck next and so on. Instead i could kill my last 30k in debt inside a year then easily afford my new engine and transmission as well as my new axles and 5th wheel by the 2nd maybe 3rd if the economy goes full tilt. And i could do so without any of the stress involved in being an O/O.

Its a tempting thought as it would let me come back with no payments at all and an esentially fresh start. I would have a near mint condition truck id spent 3 years being pedantic with equoprd with a freshly rebullt pre emissions motor and strong transmission and all new or high quality equipment with tons of time poured in to make itnperfect.

now i am not at the stage where this is more then a consideration and an option on paper. But i say this not to brag but as context. That context being seeing the way things are going. Who could blame you for wanting to tap out if your in an even better position the the above.

My guess is your rig was paid in full. You had fat maintaince and fuel accounts and had little/no debt. And id be suprised if you dont also have a nice savings account. Your an experinced driver with a lot of good miles and years. And you can likely get companys to happily get into a death arena against each other to see who gets to hire you while having more favorable home time options.

Tapping out before going into a major downturn with a massive nestegg and a good job is just plan old smart and side steps many upcoming and potential issues. Plus you likely still got your rig if you change your mind later. A rig im sure will get tinkered on and improved over however long allowing you to come back stronger, better, and even more stable.

Afterall business 101 is knowing when to take a step back and take a better route. And only the really smart ones can admit a gold paved path looks sketch as hell but the boreing old sidewalk next to it would make for some boring but mighty fine walking.

 

One of my favorite OTR memories was getting a Crete load near the Pacific Ocean in Oregon in the middle of a redwood forest. That smell of all that fresh cut redwood was amazing. Congrats.

 

I like and respect you. But let’s be honest about the situation. If you are wholly finding loads off of the load board you are dependent on someone else to find your work and negotiate the price at which you will work. No, they don’t know exactly what your price will be but they’ve set up an absolute maximum. They also control the conversation with the shipper. If there is a problem now we have to play phone tag for the next hour. Detention pay? I will submit it to the customer and get back to you.

Everyone hates the word back haul. But that’s exactly what the spot market is made of. A truck would run a load out and then contract a “back” haul to get back in for another “head” haul. The back haul paid less because you have a broker stepping on the rate.

Fast forward to today. Technology has created an explosion of new carriers who rely solely on internet based load boards. They have no customers, they have no market focus, hell most of them won’t even focus on a certain segment or trailer type. Instead opting to go wherever the best paying back haul load takes them.

They do treat it like a hobby. They want to run the spot market because they don’t want the responsibility of servicing a customer or a lane. They want to go where they want when they want.

So they want to play motor carrier. Thus it’s a hobby.


One last thing. This isn’t an across the board damnation of everyone who runs the spot market. Different commodities have different logistical situations. Also a broker or a handful of brokers can be your shipper/customer. I’m speaking mainly of the guys who one and done then move on yo the next new broker.

 

After a while, you hardly smell it, I bet. I had a bread job, and I LOVE the smell of bread. I told the boss, not sure this will work, I'll eat the profits. He said, after a while, ( like 9 million loaves later) you'll hardly smell it, and by golly he was right.