Out of control Chinese Satellite Tiangong-1

There is a guessing point on Computer by the relevant satellite trackers which has been falling at a certain amount per day due to orbital drag imposed by our own Atmosphere.

First off, during the time I watched the satellite live via radar more or less it was 183km up. from roughly the Falkands Islands to around the NW part of Western Africa where it's at about 179km up more or less. I have no idea how much they have delayed this information.

It is due to hit the ground at about 6:33 am Easter Sunday plus or minus 16 hours. Eastern Time.

Chinese space station's fiery crash to Earth is due on Easter Sunday | Daily Mail Online

The Forecasting of it 5 days ahead (* It wont survive past 2nd of April which is the 16th hour past it's expected fall and crash date and time of 1 april at 6:33 am (Easter Sunday) There is a 16 day earlier fall possibly but my forecasting matrix fails to nail down where that thing will be at 16 hours prior to it's expected impact with ground.

The result is a box when viewed from Sherwood Arkansas my position of the Data Center used by the Internet's satellite tracking systems to provide me or anyone near it with the ability see with basic eyes when it's in sunlight at certain times once daily if POSSIBLE. otherwise it's blocked by the earth itself and cannot be seen by other than radar and sometimes hidden by a sort of twilight between day and night seen by radar and not by eyes more than likely.

The size of the box shows that it will reenter and begin to burn about 42 km up above roughly Dumas Texas and hit the ground at east of Buffalo NY on 4-2 at 5:43 am in that line. OR.... the earliest point which is not even the complete 16 hour prior which shows it hitting 42 km above the surface at which it will fall about 150 miles SW of New Orleans LA and finish the Impact above Raleigh NC roughly 3-31-2018 at 5:44 or so eastern.

However. as big as that box over the USA is concerned the News Article I linked to indicates Europe and other places around the World are equally concerned at it's own impact areas. However... the paint copied program that I uploaded has one translated foreign language statement that it is ended here at this spot.

Either way it's coming down once it's at 42 KM above the earth wherever it might be at when it falls that low. It's about 8 tons, size of a bus and most of it should burn up. The problem is the Hydrezane Fuel (Spelling) which is a Cancerous substance that can kill via the Liver if it gets in contact with a human being with a power of a very strong PH value capable of inflicting very bad chemical burns. I think it's a Base rather than a acid or the other way around, I will have to look it up on that Hazmat guide and see just what it is against Humans.

At that hour of the morning either 31'st 1st or the 2nd at the very latest, there should be fireballs visible as it burns out within about 20 minutes or so. It's traveling at about 14201 mph or around 23000 km/hour so it's about 8 km a second it was doing about 17000 mph a few days ago.

Michigan has activated it's Emergency response matrix in it's Government and I would imagine other States will begin to do so already or shortly.

Michigan Activation
Chinese space station spurs activation of Mich. emergency operations

The good news is that there is still huge amounts of ocean that it might fall into. And there wont be too much to confirm such a fall unless radar has followed it down that far or it is confirmed by one or more of the very ultra low frequency nuclear blast detectors that are active around the world and probably will "Hear" it coming possibly the freqs that these things operate at are generally below that of human hearing or even feeling.

There is no point in trying to follow this thing until it's impacted. If it does hit somewhere important we will all know about it soon enough at that time. Im pretty sure the response will be somewhat similar to when we lost the USS Columbia Space Shuttle over Texas and Louisiana years ago when it burned up on reentry.

If you are trucking about and the thing comes in above you, you want inside a building. You probably will not have time to get inside one so, do the best you can with the rig and get out of it asap because most of it is plastic or fiberglass and will provide no defense against the corrosiveness. Your steel toed and hopefully steel shanked boots will help you get clear if possible without being burned too much. You can try and buy the thick rubber chemical gloves probably tonight so you have it. You do not want to be taking your boots off with your bare hands after escaping a melted rig.

If it did fall into the ocean and no where on land, then I am a happy person to be totally wrong. But that's my guess at this point in time.

Time to reentry as of this posting 2 days, 9 hours, 10 minutes, 35 seconds. (this is apparently running down in 6 second blocks for me where I am.) It is a live link back to itself in Satnav's main page and refuses to be a active media counting down on TTR.

Divided by 88 minutes against a total of 57 hours left times 60 minutes is about 3420 minutes left to live before impact. Comes up with 38 passes. There is no point in trying to predict where it will be in 38 passes while slowing in speed, dropping in altitude at a increasing rate with my mind and basic math. At the bottom of it's crossing over South America which is going to happen at this post is about roughly 500 km north and west of Falklands, about halfway to Cornecopia South America. When you get to watch it cross the Equator near roughly Nigeria (In about 40 minutes or so at this post) from roughly Botswana where it crossed about a hour ago you will see there is about a 3900 km difference to the north and west of where it last crossed at really fast angle midway on the planet's surface. It will never fall between say 43 north latitude and 42.7 or so South Latitude So everything above and below that on the planet is completely free of danger.

You have super computing power possessed by a few dozen insitutions such as NASA, NORAD and a few others that are interested in Oribal debris and it's problems against the people on our Planet. They will know before anyone else where it's going to hit. But the back of the napkin estimate is going to be a box between NOLA, Dumas TX, Buffalo NY (Death point) and Raleigh NC.

Unfortunately because of the way the orbit is set up, anyone else between 42 south latitude and 43 north over land can say the exact same thing near their cities. However. The last couple of days has been showing North America, USA in particular as a evidently growing possibility as the final impact.

I did do a internet check against the Tiangong1 as a falling object with 8 tons in weight about 10 meters long (As a school bus) coming in at say 40 degrees from vertical to 90 degrees roughly at about 12000 mph or less in speed. The Internet's own sites that specialized in modeling asteroid impacts will not model something that tiny. The Atmosphere is supposed to be our one defense to burn most of it up for something that small.

The closest I can get to with the asteroid modeling site for impact would be a 100 meter wide chunk of Iron coming in at 45 degrees to 90 degree angle at 12000 mph, the result is about a 3 mile crater wide. It will be about 700 yards deep in the center. The ejecta or falling gravel (Literally gravel rain and dirt) reaches about 10 miles. And that's just a tiny one. There is no shake map much beyond say 3.3 in a earthquake and there isnt any appreciable temperatures beyond a mile or two that will inflict anything between a bad sunburn to a second for those very close or incinerated for those at the crater spot.

You would have to get into the realm of say 4 miles wide of solid iron before you get into 1000 degrees worth of burn at 700 miles from impact that will leave a crater about 30 miles wide and 6 miles deep and the resulting nuclear winter over 10 years will kill 90% of the people. That's known as a ELE event. (Extinction level event) And the quakes generated by such a hit on land (Not over ocean...) would be beyond 10.0 If it hit the atlantic east of the USA, everything up to about 1200 feet high inland will now be ocean however far from the coast it would be.

Chinese space station spurs activation of Mich. emergency operations
Source of real time tracking of Tiangong-1 (There is actually also a Tiangong-2 either attached to it or dropped off, nothing is known about that half of the whole thing.) Which is why I am not even discussing it here.

SATVIEW - TIANGONG 1 - Norad 37820U - Tracking satellites and Spacejunk in Real time

The Blue dotted line is the actual path for our Sun. The Red Dotted Path is currently the one on which the Tiangong 1 is on with a small icon showing it's real time positioning. In the time it took me to put togehter this post which was close to a hour, it's crossed the Falkands, then Western africa above south africa, over the Chinese border with Russia and has now made it halfway back down across the Pacific towards South America and then will cross the atlantic to enter above roughly Niger Africa which is in western north africa above where it crossed before.

Anyway. Make your bets Ladies and Gentlemen. Just don't be there with your little cell phone at the thing lol.

 

The new update shows it pushed beyond it's expected demise of about 5:40 am tomorrow morning into roughly 1 day 9 hours later from the time of this post.

NORAD has one map, US STRATCOM has the other. Both maps show reentry above China and falling into the Pacific in the southern Hemispheres near probably New Zealand.

The expected Solar winds that were supposed to arrive earlier did not materiaize any loading against the falling satellite and it will continue to stay in space a little longer until about 42 km up where it will become for a few moments a large collection of burning firebals.

New maps updated. The nuber 37820U is the NORAD's Designation for the specific Tiangong1's pending demise. As of this post, 4 cities in Europe will have one last visual chance before reentry.

About a two hours or so from now it will pass over Arkansas for the last time and it will be about roughly 28 orbitals left prior to splat on the earth or splash onto the water.
http://www.satview.org/graphics/forec_37820U.jpg

There I think will be one last fuel burn from China to boost it's height above the planet briefly and then that's it. It's coming down after that burn is finished.

I will post again tomorrow should the information change again earlier or later than tomorrow night.

 

New date and forecast issued for now classified space junker entry. east of Australia plus or minus 8 hours.

It goes to illustrate that even expected times of demise and places where it should happen is not finalized.

The one good point about this reentry is that it is near a strip of really deep waters known as a spacecraft cemetary deliberately targeted to land anything used by man in a place so far and so deep no human can be expected to be able to physically reach it.

SATVIEW - Forecast for reentry of space junk TIANGONG 1 (37820U). Track it in Real time

 

It's 22.4 hours from reentry. Orbits have decayed to about 168 km for high and about 154 for the low.

At about 88.4 minutes per orbit, we are about 14 orbits until it burns up in reentry. We won't really know where it's coming down until about 3 or 4 orbits prior. Which will be roughly 3PM April 1.

The world is running models, batches of them trying to average out where it's coming down.

Some has it burning up over Malaysia, others as it comes into western africa, still others have it coming in at some point west of the USA or over it. In about 7 orbits or so it will pass over roughly Pensecola-Macon GA and out to the atlantic. But each orbit will bring it back over the USA towards the west coast. It will make one or two more passes over Arkansas prior to reentry. The problem is I am still staked on a Dumas Texas towards Buffalo NY Hit which probably may or may not happen. (Leaning more towards may not happen.) But it's definitely coming down in 22 hours and change from the time of this post somewhere.

IF someone thought about shooting it? We could, but it will create a cloud of metal that will ruin the highways so to speak and break all sorts of satellites and pathways we need to launch into space. It will ruin those too.

I could add maps now, but Ive learned that maps changed so much that I will wait until tomorrow afternoon roughly when the computers figuring this thing finally runs out of variables to argue about and come up with a hard solution and put a target bullseye on the planet somewhere. If there are people under it they will be the first to know.

Some people are even saying it wont come in until the 4th, but I don't see it when I follow the NORAD, USSTRATSPACE and two other mapping sources, one in California and another in France which has been pretty good.

Skylab in 1975 roughly I think came in over Australia and they were finding bits of it out there for a long time. Even ISS will reenter at some point in the next 30 years or so as well. That one is huge compared to anything we put up since once it's value to our World becomes null and void.

 

The Tiangong One continues to fluctuate in space above the earth between roughly 156 km and 168Km or so give or take one or two. It will pass over Arkansas in my part of the visible sky lit by the sun for about 4 minutes at 10 degrees elevation, 34 degrees magnetic at about 5:32 am CST and be masked by the planet against the sun at about 5:36 am.

According to the first map I posted that thing is right on time. But it has not yet begun reentry. For that it needs to drop to about 90km or 42 miles above the earth roughly and then straight down it goes burning up as it goes. That's going to happen plus or minus between about 10:41 PM CST (Chicago time) to around 3:40 Monday AM give or take 7 hours.

Some of the trackers are issuing predictions that have larger time differences up to 10 hours plus or minus 10:40 tonight CST. It's probably going to enter the earth above Brazil and enter the atlantic between Brazil and west africa.

But for the pending pass at 5:32 this morning Chicago time over my head I am pleased to report that satellite will be exactly where that first map said it would be at that date and time several days ago. But not reentering just yet. There has not been enough pressure from solar wind, not enough drag on the atmosphere and other things influencing the last drop.

China as a few hours ago still insists that the American Midwest is one of the top risk areas for reentry later tonight possibly, or near New Zealand or beyond Brazil.

I posted about Skylab as being big. It was. But the truly BIG entry was the MIR back in about late 90's if I remember right, the weight on that total was about 120,000 KG. Whatever that is in pounds. ANything bigger will be ISS in about 30 years or less once it's useful life has become worthless and no value.

I'll post a map later this afternoon when there are only about three or less orbits left or even better just part of one so we all know for sure where it's going in relatively quickly. Each orbit is taking about 91 minutes now. It's was 88 but the drag is slowing the speed very slightly. It's doing about 17400 mph roughly or 28900 km/hr.

 

It's below 155 km. It should burn up at about 90 km.

It has passed japan now towards texas in about 30 minutes or so. Then finished once past brazil.

Some sites say it has 7 hours to live, others like this one says it's done in less than two.

We will know for sure shortly.

They are getting ready to clear airspace of traffic in a space about 45 miles wide by about around 1200 miles long about where it's supposed to burn up at the cruising altitude of many passenger jets.

Even then, nothing is a sure thing. The sun is heating the day time side enough to have the atmsphere expand and help kill it early.

TIANGONG-1 Reenter - Decay Predictions + ONLINE 3D REAL TIME TRACKING

 

US STRATCOM has issued a formal zero orbit reentry starting about now. It's 139km over china and will pass south America roughly and splash east of Brazil and Africa.

No one will know unless one of our Nuclear Flash sateliites see the final fireball or it actually hit the earth near people. Otherwise it will be a few hours before they know for sure in our Command Structure that's its down.

TIANGONG-1 Reenter - Decay Predictions + ONLINE 3D REAL TIME TRACKING