Paying $80,000-90,000 for a 2016 semi truck with 800,000 miles?

Instead Brokers say, at least you know what your costs are, and how much you need to charge. Lol. That’s not the point. However that is what usually determines the rates, based on competition. Right now, the inflation caused by shortages are a big Driver of the high freight rates. Higher Shipping costs are a small increase, compared to other reasons. Therefore, I’m not complaining. What goes up must come down. Once the urgency to restock is over, so will the good rates be over. Prices will adjust for everything. And as usual, Truckers will make just enough to make it worth running. I hope Drivers pay goes up. I win as an O/O, when Costs for Companies Drivers goes up. Can’t have everything both ways. Right now we do. Till everything gets adjusted to normal supply and demand levels. I’m not worried about inflation one bit. Why? It’s inevitable, given the spending Government’s have done all around the world, in the past 2 yrs. Debt levels being what they are. The only real solution is inflation. If deflation happens, everything will be lost. Equity in homes, any investments, that would be a real disaster, much worse than incremental inflation. That will be absorbed. And will make all existing debt less of a problem. Not good for those sitting on massive amounts of cash. I’ve never had that problem myself. When this is all over, there will be fallout. Repos, and O/Os going out of Business. Bad times for some, good for others. I doubt it will be a mirror of the rest of the economy. While other Industries strive, Trucking will get worse. Part of the reason others will strive, is from lower rates. In other words, everything will be back to normal. Enjoy it now, no O/O should be complaining, just ride the wave, till it crashes down.

 

The credit markets drive everything. That’s the wild card in the equation. Higher inflation usually means higher interest rates, in an attempt to slow inflation, through slowing growth. That’s not the case right now, not yet anyways. It wasn’t the case in 09 either. The credit crunch was a result of everything being over valued, and over leveraged. Caused by loose lending. Once the credit dried up, it was like turning off a spigot. Everything runs on credit. Even very successful Large corporations take the profit while carrying debt, and continue to run on credit. Going as far as borrowing each weeks payroll. That’s pretty crazy. Kind of like factoring. All in an attempt to show better numbers. The whole system relies on debt. It’s a debt system. From the minute Congress approves the printing of money, to the last borrower. We all play the game. Sometimes getting caught holding a hand full of useless cards, when the system has a glitch. It’s all a gamble. It gets reset as needed. I didn’t mean to go on a tangent. Just wanted to say, in 2009, my Trailer shop had a brand new 53’ off brand, Dorsey maybe? Or Strick, Monon? Doesn’t matter. It had big letters on it,$20,999. It was sitting out front by the road. Salesman comes out. While I’m in line getting parts. Says give me $20k today, and it’s yours. I asked about financing. He said Cant get any financing these days. I missed that deal. Some food for thought. Things always seem like they’ll last forever, while in the midst of it. But everything changes before you know it.

 

Inflation happened. It’s not gonna go back down. All the overpriced equipment you see on the market right now, is the price now. If your having a hard time with it, get over it. Damage is done and irreversible. The guys that over paid and have reserves will not go out of business. It’s the ones that are counting pennies and being cheap will suffer. Those that run cheap right now will not have money for new equipment or repairs. Pretty soon trucks will get so expensive owner ops won’t even exist. The more expensive a start up is the better for the Megas. Instead of figuring out what your operating cost is you should be trying to make the very most every time. Squeeze every dollar out of a broker. Every time you take a load that you can afford to take because it’s above your operating expense you were leaving money on the table. Put yourself where there’s a truck shortage and suck the brokers dry

 

I prefer the term “Gouge they’re eyes out” while we can. It won’t last forever. A lot of the new Trucks sold in the last few yrs. will be repossessed. It’s a matter of time. All depends on the new equipment backlog. Hopefully it lasts a while. The only reason rates are up, is because everything’s out of whack. Once it’s back in balance, rates and inflation will meet somewhere in the middle. Operating costs, especially fuel cost, will determine success or failure. Anyone whose never been through a tight rates market will give up. Easy come easy go. It’s that simple. No price stays artificially high very long. There’s always a breaking point. It’s already started, rates are going down a bit, and fuel, equipment are behind the curve, still going up. It’s a disaster waiting to happen. It will happen when Market conditions allow. Kind of like buying into the tech bubble in 99, or housing bubble in 08, or now for that matter. Housings overdue for a correction. Those who have equity now in a home will do fine. Others will not. That’s how it was in the 70s. Anyone who purchased a house despite high interest rates did well over time. Refinancing at lower rates, while prices continued to rise. Fuel by lower rates. Right now a lot are already priced out of the housing market. Prices can’t be sustainable. Same with equipment prices. It may be a few yrs. but 2 yr old Trucks will be selling at Auction for half the original inflated price when new. Till the market finally corrects itself. Then it’s the normal 4 yr old Truck, for half the price of new. That’s my guess, and I stress guess. It’s a crazy time. No telling what else could happen to influence prices. One big guessing game. One big gamble at best.

 

@Rideandrepair this is what I initially thought. I no longer do so. I don’t think the market will go back to the normal we expected. Rates will not fall but continue to rise. Doesn’t mean you’ll make good money because of inflation. Rates cannot go back down to what we are used of seeing because labor is going up. Employers are not going to cut employees wages when they’re getting paid by the hour. What I’m saying is rates are not all that high right now because of inflation. There might be a housing bubble or a truck equipment bubble that will fall after a few years. That labor bubble will not fall. The damage of that is still going on. Even if rates are seven dollars a mile it’s still may be low because of inflation and cost. We must re-analyze what is going on and stop comparing it to normal rise and fall of the market. There’s still more room for more damage..
I don’t think you’ll ever be able to get a brand new hood for 165,000 again. It’ll probably be closer to 200. And that’s before you add the chrome my friend. Another thing that will keep rates up. Ask a graduating class of 2022, who here is going to be a OTR truck driver? I bet you won’t get a single one.

 

I think you may be on to something here. One thing is for sure, once you give a raise, there is no going back.

We all know insurace, tires, parts, crap like that sure isnt going down. Energy prices sure arent going down in the next few years anyway. Rates may stay up but costs continue to rise to where its all the same anyway. I posted about this type of thing day or two ago somewhere here on TTR. Basically it'll be the same as always only numbers are just higher and barrier of entry more difficult.

 

This truck market is getting really stupid .. I was on a FB page I watch for Peterbilts last night there was a listing posted at 7:00 for a truck about 4 hrs away that I was interested in.. I call as soon as I saw it which was 37 mins after it was posted.. the seller told me he already sold it and got 5000 more than his asking price..
I asked him if 2 idoits got in a bidding war.. he said NO.. the guy just openly offered him 5 k more if he would sell it to him
That just crazy IMHO

 

Kind of crazy, but I told a guy I would buy a W900 in Pennsylvania once. I had the loan approved and was looking at plane tickets when he called to let me know not to worry about it cause he sold it to someone else. That’s frustrating too.

 

At least he had the decency to call and let you know.

 

There is still deals out there to be had, at least as far as today's market is concerned. They're not just going to jump in your lap any more.

Staying away from FB trucker groups is step #1.