Peak Tornado Month About to Begin in May

May is usually the month with the most destructive tornadoes in the US. And long term forecasts show May 1 and 2 might ring in some south-central plains action. Keep aware of what's going on and what you're heading into or what's coming your way. Keep your head on a swivel when things start looking dicey.

Often when these things are showing up in SPC forecasts this far out, they usually begin to increase in threat risk as the days draw nearer

 

I love to observe discreet nighttime storms passing nearby



From SPC's web site. Wednesday might end up at least a "Moderate Day" by game day
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On Tuesday/D5, heights will rise across the central Plains as a
larger-scale upper trough amplifies across the Southwest, and in the
wake of the departing upper MS Valley wave. A few severe storms
cannot be ruled out across MN into WI, but instability will be
marginal. Southerly winds will continue across the Plains, featuring
a more robust moisture return with mid 60s F dewpoints into OK and
then KS late, and uppers 60s to near 70 F into central TX. Even
through instability will be greater, the area will be in between
waves, which typically results in very isolated daytime activity,
and a greater degree of nocturnal storms associated with warm
advection. The area from northern KS into southern NE, southwest IA,
and northwest MO appears to have the greatest threat of
evening/overnight storms, and instability may be strong enough for a
few daytime cells, and/or an MCS.

On Wednesday/D6, the severe threat should be more widespread as the
main upper trough moves into the Plains. Low-level moisture will be
firmly established with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints east of a
dryline extending from western KS into northwest TX by late
afternoon, with a warm front/outflow somewhere across northern KS or
southern NE. Early day storms will likely play a role in the severe
setup, both in terms of air mass quality for northern areas, and
possible outflow boundaries. Models do hint at storms forming
relatively early across KS, with more of a diurnal threat along the
dryline. Wind profiles will favor supercells in all areas, but storm
mode may be more complex away from the dryline. A few tornadoes,
damaging wind, and large hail are all possible. This severe area for
Wednesday/D6 will likely be adjusted spatially in the coming days.