Robot trucks?? Are you kidding??

Its a bunch of crap IMO. A computer can't "see" the loose straps on your lumber. It can't "see" the broken chain holding that D6 onto the lowbed. How is a dump truck going to navigate 3 miles in reverse down a narrow driveway to a house that's being built? What happens when the truck is going downgrade in a snow storm, throws the jake on and jackknifes into the ditch? Can't tell me we have the technology to tell if the road is icy or not.

 

Four-hundred-plus-ton autonomous haul trucks are already in use in Australia, Chile, Canada and likely other locations. They "see" the road just fine. How difficult do you really think it will be to get a garden-variety 80,000 lb truck to accurately follow a ribbon of asphalt from one building to the next? Will autonomous trucks replace all drivers? No, but they'll sure put a serious dent in the ~60% (SWAG) of driving that are repetitive routes.

Self-driving, 416-ton trucks are hauling raw materials around Australia

 

That's sad though wanting to cut the driver for only 15% saving over human these company need to wake up if no one has jobs people won't beable to buy all your #### on welfare

 

I think huge commercial freight drones will be more of a threat than autonomous trucks imo.

 

I have been waiting since 1958 when I was 5 years old to hop in my neighbors flying car. He never got it, I never got a ride. It was right there on the cover of Popular Mechanix....

 

Despite our protestations, it's coming, and it's coming fast. Why? MONEY. Gobs, oodles, tons, piles of MONEY.

Morgan Stanley estimates that an autonomous, electric semi truck would cost 70% LESS than what we do now. Two million semi trucks in the US, say we replace half. One million. Operating budget per truck, $200,000 per year. Savings per truck, $140,000.

How much is a million times $140,000? $140 billion. Per year. Every. Single. Year. From now on. More if we run more than half of the miles autonomously. That's a dazzling pile of money. Irresistible.

How much does it cost to pain magnetic paint on the freeway so an autonomous truck can follow the road in the snow? Or RFID transponders?

Uber put out an estimate that their autonomous cars are expected to drop the cost per mile for an Uber ride from just north of $2.00 a mile to....... $0.25 per mile. That'll change EVERYTHING. Want to go to a restaurant? They'll pay for your car. Kid needs to go to soccer? Pull up the Uber app.

The amount of money involved is so incredibly staggering that infrastructure needs such as improved GPS, road surface guiding, vehicle to vehicle communications and transponders are going to be relatively small expenses.

 

What's your time frame for this to happen for lets say half the trucks to be autonomous?

 

@Blue Nomad, I'm GUESSING here, but I expect the first non-experimental autonomous trucks to be rolling in five years, and the halfway adoption point in 10 to 15 years. Full adoption in something like 20 years.