Self Driving Trucks ARE HERE... Licensed in Nevada.

I disagree, most economists cannot plan for the future of automation. A future where jobs are few and far between. You are equating mechanical improvements with automation. Sure the tractor eliminated the horse but a man still had to drive it. A concrete truck brought the concrete in and some jobs were lost but men still had to work it, another had to drive it and operate it. What automation does is eliminate the human entirely.

If you follow automation to its logical conclusion the machines will make the machines. So while the concrete truck took some jobs, the manufacturing of the truck created some. With automation, the taking of a job doesn't mean another one is created.

Your history is correct but you are applying it incorrectly. We have had improvements all through history but we have never had full automation. That is the uncharted territory.

 

But when has that ever really happened? During the industrial revolution Marx predicted that the immense amount of wealth being created would free us all from labor. He wasn't alone. It was a popular sentiment at the time. Obviously, they were wrong, dead wrong. You are an optimistic person and that's good. But I think you are flirting with utopianism here. If you can point to one time in history humans were freed economically I would appreciate it.

Google, Apple and Microsoft are the biggest investors of A.I. And who are they? The wealthiest companies. Companies exist to make money, so who will own this new tech, this new freedom? It won't be you or me. This notion of freeing us from labor isn't a new idea, but it is a failed one.

 

The flaw in that thinking wasn't that automation didn't create an unimaginable level of wealth, it most certainly did. That truck didn't replace a man and a team of horses, it replaced 10 men, 10 teams of horses, a farrier, two stable boys, and a farmer had to switch to wheat instead of growing hay. All those people and resources were freed up to create additional wealth.

The flaw in Marx's thinking (and others of his era) is that he assumed humans would value leisure so much we would choose to live idyllic pastoral lives. That we would be happy at the same level of wealth with more free time. Instead it turns out most of us are achievement and accomplishment oriented, and we want to do better than that Jones S.O.B. next door with his new S.U.V. parked in the driveway..... So off to work we go, sacrificing leisure time for increased social (financial) rank.

 

What do you mean? The truck by itself isn't automation.

 

I suppose that depends if you define automation narrowly or not. The difference between "fully automated", and automated is a matter of degree. Even in the age of the machines, at some point the human has to come out with a big hammer and smack something to get it to run right.

We call a trash truck with an automatic collection lift an automated truck, but it still has a driver. Some factories now run in the dark, because there are no humans working there --- until stuff breaks or needs maintained, upgraded, etc. There's no such thing as complete automation (yet?).

 

meh...
annoyed by thread title...LOL!!!...

I doubt we'll get that far..too many variables...algorithms to determine who to hit, the biker on the left, or the minivan full of kids on the right etc etc
Just dont think Itll happen...Would always have to have dedicated lanes, tracks, something

 

Of course not but I was referring directly to your truck analogy. The truck is nothing more than a Wagon that is powered by something other than a horse. It serves the same function, has to be driven by a human etc. There is no degree of automation to it.

 

I don't think many laid off people feel they are free to create additional wealth when they get the boot. They were free to create additional wealth without losing their job to begin with.

 

Are we discussing feelings or economics? For 100 years, we, as a society, have ripped farmers off the land and broke dreams, families and fortunes doing it. Most of them pulled themselves together and went to work in the automobile industry, health care or other growth industries. Capitalism doesn't provided guarantees of comfort, stability, or happiness. All it does is provide a framework that directs resources (capital, labor) to it's most productive use.

If that is a team of horses, fine. If that is a semi-truck, then the guy with the horses is going to go broke and have to find a more productive way to put his labor to good use. Inevitably, his labor will be more valuable after it is multiplied in effectiveness by improved capital (technology). Hopes and dreams may be shattered in the process.

 

You guys know that saying....?