Should us new guys be afraid of autonomous technology?

Haha same thing around 3rd grade in 2002 i remember my teacher saying the exact same thing. By the time we got our licenses we'd have flying cars Lol

 

There's suppressed tech patents that have been bought up/silenced by the gov, were just not privy to. Think Tesla from 100+ yrs ago

 

Ever play the newest Grand Theft Auto? They can't even program traffic in that game to drive worth a darn!

 

If your like most of the country you would be afraid of everything even your shadow, and equally offended by everything as well.
I think automated taking over the industry is a long way out. Also God forbid, but can you imagine if the automated truck didn't detect stopped traffic?

 

No!
Not any more than the blacksmith feared the automobile

1. It will not happen overnight. We do not have the infrastructure to handle a person controlled vehicle much less a computer controlled one
Imagine all the autonomous vehicle parked all over the freeways because they shut down from being scared or hitting a pothole and are now erring on the side of caution?
2. When it does happen. It will create a different job market / demand just like tires did to the horseshoe

 

It will be slow to role out but more and more companies are trying to bring it to market.

300k miles per truck per year
Less per mile operation cost


All in all, it’s happening just “when” is the question.

 

If they do an infrastructure bill right , roads will built with sensors in them and pave the way for automated movement. I don't think we are there yet

 

Yes and no. But it depends on what scale your speaking of. In general we are at a MINIMUM a decade out from full replacement and LIKELY at least 50 years out. And that supposes that we have huge advances in AI, self driving tech, satalite coverage, cell coverage, bandwidth coverage, and a host of other issues. In addition we have decaded of laws to cut through.

What happens when the first autonomus truck hits and kills/injurs someone? who is liable and for what? is the carrier liable for the cargo but the hardware company liable for the injurys? Or will it be the software provider? maybe the tech who installed and maintains it? How about the construction guys for not pushing the construction update and accurate mesurments of the new traffic pattern to the gps providers in time? all the above? those will take time to sort out.

Next is how poor the electronics currently are at sorting out traffic clutter, weather, wind, road conditions, construction, dumb drivers, stuff falling off cars and so on. As well as how fast and accurate everything can be updated. I.E how can construction crews, law enforcment, accident response teams and so on get updates to all these vehicles? How will they detrct the changes in the roads if the lines arent laid well? or if they get covered in tar and mud?

How are these vehicles going to be cared for and who will do it? Who fuels them otr? Who changes trailers? who guides them into docks? And who is going to pay for it all? How much will this tech cost? how long to deliver these trucks? how much to maintain them?

Who will build the infrastructure to utalize these trucks? there are WAY to many places that would need to almost entirely rebuild to handle these types of trucks. For example the place i delivered to today is inside a tight building where you need to do super.tight turns in a confined active area while monitoring where your dump is and then squeeze backwards out a blindside corner through a 12 foot wide door at a 90 degree angle from said dark building into blinding light. No AI i know of could have done that. Not to mention these fleets would buy these trucks slowly and take years to phase truckers out. In addition to the HUGE swaths of people it would put on the dole. Entire towns and citys would die if truckers went away.

Most likely what will happen is over the next decade or two we will start to see some autonomus vehicles doing easy local runs and being guided in either by dogs or by something like a drone control where one guy monitors and controls a handful of trucks which will expand to longer runs over time. You will also likely see small convoys of 1 manned truck and several drones for typical dry van stuff. Meanwhile more specialized work such as to rural areas with limited infrastructure or in dangerious areas like say....vail pass in winter will be fully or mostly manned. And more specialized stuff such as logging, tanker, dump, cranes and so on will remain manned for the simple fact trucks in those types of jobs need far to much babying for AI control to be feasable any time soon if ever. Hard for an AI to get out and clear roads or make judgments on odd situations.

Honestly replaceing the infrastructure alone will take at least 20 or 30 years just due to the estimated trillions it would cost. So yes its something to worry about, but not soon on a scale that would displace your job. And even if it does it will create jobs in other sectors.

 

One big issue is the tech. But I have a feeling Starlink by Space X will be maybe the next step.


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/spa...nk-satellite-internet-to-moving-vehicles.html

 

When a robot can throw on 2 or 3 sets of chains and tie down an excavator or load of lumber I'll start to worry.