The Future of Trucking

...and if so, could you provide some links? I can't seem to find any and I'd really like to read more about this. Thanks!

 

[video]https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cdgQpa1pUUE[/video]

http://spectrum.ieee.org/transporta...ar-passed-the-first-us-state-selfdriving-test

http://www.businessinsider.com/volvo-drive-me-autonomous-self-driving-cars-2015-2

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/...falls-but-leverages-tech-competency/23760817/

 

There were a lot of reasons for automation. It wasn't just to save a buck. Yes, automation did save a lot of money in some areas of manufacturing and increased profit margins by quite a lot. But to say it hurt the average Joe is being a little short sighted. The average Joe should have taken a better look at things. If average Joe would have thought about it, he would have realized that these machines needed........ hydraulic techs, machinists, electronics techs, pattern makers and designers, and maintenance techs.

Businesses do not owe people jobs. Businesses hire people that can help them generate profits by exchanging money for agreed upon services.

There were a lot of reason for automation, but it wasn't just to replace workers.

In some cases it was accuracy, and creating a better product.

In some cases it was to prevent repetitive motion injuries to workers and reducing (workers comp) claims.

In some cases it was due to poor manual workmanship.

Many companies offered retraining to the workers who went through the automation change over, and were met with pretty stiff resistance by the unions, and the individual themselves.

 

In my lifetime (I'm 40):

LTL and local? Highly unlikely
OTR: Possible but unlikely
Off road and private property? Yes totally.

I could see drone tractors doing very well as switchers and in container yards. That's where most of the automated systems in Europe seem to thrive. We're already starting to see GPS navigated combines and harvesting machines. I could see mine haulers being converted in 20 years too.

But these are all controlled environments, free of litigious, drunk, texting 4 wheelers.
If any automation is coming then I would expect to see it here first.

Inner city LTL? An iPhone may have more computing than the Apollo but I doubt anything short of a Cray/Univac sized Pentium could process all that could go wrong between 14th and 125th street in NYC. (even if the MTA was willing to partner up on the costs,,, like the transit unions would allow THAT! Ha!) One run over kid in Harlem and you'll be on the Nightly News until the chairman of your software company is in leg irons.

Funny thing about cost: Yes any kind of automated truck would need thousands of dollars in sensors, and some of that tech is available now off the shelf. On the other hand we live in a world where carriers stick the driver with a bill for a burned out (REQUIRED!) headlight. Do you really think Bottomfeeder Inc. is going to shell out $2k for a rear mounted anti-collision sensor? (they have those on Hyundai's now! don't you think if they mounted them on trailers it wouldn't save millions in backing collisions annually?

So net net: If you're 18 don't go to CDL school and expect to work as a spotter for 50 years.

 

Tell you what, go back to when I started and try tell drivers it'll be all palletized freight and they'd laugh you off the dock. "Well, then what's the driver for????? Huh???? What's he gonna do, just drive the truck, for Pete's sake, man!!!!!!!"

 

No doubt there were other reasons but again, companies usually want to do things the cheapest they can. If the machine didn't save them money they wouldn't buy it. Certainly, in some cases the machine just made more sense but in many many cases eliminating the paid worker was the driving reason. You can't convince me that a robot that takes 10 men's jobs gives 10 other men jobs. Well maybe Chinese men.

I think the idea of supporting automation without looking at the human consequences is short sighted. I have heard these corporatist dreaming of automated trains, ships and trucks all in an effort to get a tiny bit more freight into the human quarters and to not have to pay the operators. I don't see how you can say the average Joe isn't hurt by automation. Maybe not massively, but hurt nonetheless.

 

With all due respect, sir, you are being disingenuous at best. The bottom line is if automation did not save money, then companies would not do it, to wit:

1. Accuracy: better accuracy = fewer defects = saves money.
2. Repetitive Motion Injuries: fewer injuries = saves money.
3. Poor Manual Workmanship: better quality = saves money.

 

Here are some facts about business and investments which are practically indisputable.

1. Automation is here to stay and it will get better. Note: Moore's Law in computing capability cycle of evolution. Thus it will be less expensive and more productive as time goes by. Here is just one interesting article about it. http://www.livescience.com/23074-future-computers.html

2. Everybody knows we already have a lot of basic automation in our lives already such as very sophisticated Auto Pilot on Airplanes which can basically fly the plane by itself. Pilots are there in case something goes wrong because the auto pilot maintains the course better than the pilot would and this saves fuel, let's the pilot maintain a little less situational awareness at altitude, so these are benefits. I don't know if the pilot will be completely replaced but we do have drones that can effectively be flown from remote locations already. The future WILL bring a lot of enhancements.
3. We already have cars that can parallel park themselves without any issue and it is clear that they can do it better than a driver a lot of times. The car can brake if it's about to have an impact, cruise control that adjusts speed for cars in proximity, etc. The future will clearly bring more advancements to relieve human involvement. For example, we already have lanes you pay extra for to go faster in less traffic. Who is to say you don't get lanes to travel on auto pilot whereby when you enter the highway controls your speed, following distance, etc.
4. Business invests in obtaining a competitive advantage to make the best profit margins over time. If they decide to invest in automated systems, robotics, etc. they are simply betting that they will get a better product in terms of quality control, faster production time, lower production costs, etc. This is normal and will be done whether people get laid off, fired, or have to be retrained.
5. GPS is quite accurate these days but not perfect. It will get better! It already can make a route, calculate distance, drive time, notify about traffic, pick faster routes in real time, etc. This will only get better especially if in a commercial vehicle where only certain roads may be utilized among other considerations.
So with these facts in mind, the future of trucking like many other fields will incorporate more technology certainly. When that technology makes it less expensive to ship using some sort of automation to replace the driver, improve on safety, reduce costs, etc. it will be invested in, implemented, and improved upon.
The future is already here in some respects. We have GPS tracking the truck movement, we have Qualcomm, we have experienced cameras in the cab monitoring our actions, we have electronic logs tracking our work/rest time, we have satellite TV in the truck, etc. The main focus of the future of trucking is likely to be in getting better safety/less accidents (insurance factors), better economy with fuel and aerodynamics (lower operating costs), and I personally think a bigger continued emphasis will be placed on training.
I don't think drivers will be replaced in any significant manner for at least another 15-20 years but advancements in AI, robotics, and human biology, are all working together to where it will be possible in my estimation before too long. Perhaps truck drivers should listen to books and try to get some online education, if interested, as an alternative for the short/long term because we all know the technology already exists for that today.

 

What!! I hear old drivers claiming that they can't even make an automatic truck! No we have to shift it manual style, you know just like 50 years ago! lol.

Will the Robots drive an automatic or a manual? That's is the real question. lol

 

Eventually, robots will do about 95% of ALL jobs in the economy, from truck driver to accountant. The govt. will then just send us all a check in the mail every month to keep us content and not rioting. So we can just sit around and watch the Price is Right or Wheel of Fortune all day. Good times.