Truck Load Rates Halt 8 Week Slide 2.0

I hope all those losers are bankrupt before the end of this quarter. They don't even have enough common sense to learn English.

 

That's ironic when you think about it.
They shut down and hope that everybody is scared that the World will crumble. In fact, everyone hopes that they, and many more like them, will shut down for good, so that there is more freight to bid on.

 

The only way to keep rates from fluctuating so extremely would be to limit the capacity and new entries. It is a simple math. At some point it is about too many trucks for too little freight.

As soon as the word is out about freight at 4 dol a mile or more, you have influx of new comers and the existing carriers want to expand. It is funny but strange to see people increasing capacity by buying trucks, acquiring new authorities, or adding more trucks and trailers and then complaining about rates going down.

 

I don’t wish anyone to fail but it’s not even been a month and they’re already complaining about rates and brokers so that leads me to think that maybe they didn’t use the last 18 months to prepare for a downturn or they bought in trying to get rich.

As far as limiting new entrants we had that once. Everyone cheered when it went away except those already in business. Companies went under because they’d paid too much buying out a company just to get their authority to run in an area they wanted to be in and overnight it was worthless. The closest I saw that I’m old enough to remember was South Dakota intrastate was still regulated up into the mid-90’s or so. After dad passed in 1991 my mom sold our B permit (SD intrastate) for nearly $15k because you simply couldn’t get one.

 

Freightwaves keeps riding the wave of attention and pops out new articles about freight recession every day
Cass reports ‘freight slowdown’ in March

At the same time, isn't trucking a thermometer of what's to come in a general economy?

 

I am not even advocating nor seriously considering any sort of limitations. It is a simple formula of load to truck ratio. Too many trucks means lower rates. So whoever added a truck or trailer in the last year and half and now is trying to blame someone else for lower rates they should look in the mirror. For them to be still at 5 dol a mile, others would need to stop working.
It is impossible to agree on a below decency rate, e.i. "say no to cheap freight". If it were, e.g. nobody takes anything less than 3 dol per mile, some trucks would not be able to find freight at all.

 

People will make changes whether it’s by choice or necessity. I’m guilty of it. I was hauling livestock back 2012-2013 when fuel was $4 out west. I don’t even know what regular rates were back then, I wasn’t paying attention. But you had to sort of know someone to get in on the long haul west coast livestock stuff. Then you see rates fluctuate other places and trucks shift around and soon hauling livestock wasn’t what it used to be. Too many trucks trying to do the same thing so I stopped doing the long haul west coast stuff and mainly ran the Midwest until I sold my truck at the end of 2016.

At the end of 2018 when I decided to buy a truck again I used connections I had to meet a guy and ended up pulling food grade pneumatic. The money was decent, and I was doing ok while everyone complained about rates in 2019. Then when Covid hit I saw an opportunity to use the HOS exemption to my advantage so I bought a trailer so I could haul feed. Then thanks to the supply chain I ended up selling the trailer a year later for more than I paid for it. Right place at the right time.

I’ll admit last year when I sold my hopper and hooked onto a van it was a little disappointing to see numbers being posted on this site and compare them to what I was making. But now about the only number that has changed for me is my fuel cost. Revenue per mile is still holding steady close to where it was when I first started last June.

Maybe I’ve just been lucky that I have the ability to make changes when I want. Obviously if you own multiple trucks, have customers, etc you can’t just flip a switch. But one guy with one truck can do many things and keep plugging along. That 5th wheel hooks right up to all kinds of different trailers. It may not always be the part of the country you want to run or you might not be home every weekend but I think an open mind is helpful in most situations. I listen to my brother complain about hauling cattle every time I talk to him but he has a list of excuses a mile long why he can’t come run where I am. Fine then, sit in your misery.

I was having a convo the other day with a member here that feels I could do well with my own authority, and I know I’m driven enough that I could make a go of it. But at the end of the day, I’m also in contact with 3 other niche carriers that I know I could go to if things really go south where I’m at. I don’t know, maybe I’m not a true business man because I will take that security of knowing I can go different places with my truck over hunting down my own stuff.

 

I love irony.

 

I had two different dealers reach out today offering reefers. One said 3 just opened up in July and the other said he had as many as I wanted already on the ground. I was pretty blown away.

So, looks to me like cancellations are beginning to happen today as we speak. The first guy said he found out 10 mins before he called me. 2nd guy said they had just let dealers know this morning of some extra supply.

Time will tell. Freight was bare bones in the Midwest today that I could see.

 

Wow, maybe a cancellation by a big carrier?