What are you Carhauler’s doing in these slow times? Is it even slow for you yet

Banker · Apr 10, 2020

KANSAS TRANSIT said: ↑

Yes, here I am at 3am writing this, sometimes my brain is it's own worst enemy. But something has been bothering me for the last couple of days, and although I am on a couple different forums, there are a handful of guys that have opinions that I respect greatly, most of them are already here, so that is why I didn't start a new thread,,,,,,,, So with apologizes to Banker for high jacking this,,,,,,Here go's nothing.

First and foremost the next paragraph has nothing to do with any kind of ego stroking, but I need you all to understand where I came from and why this bothers me the way it does. As some of you know I started my first business 42 years ago at 21 years old, never had a day of College, and have never worked for anyone since. My grandfathers principles of work hard, work smart, live within your means has always served me well, I am pretty much a hardcore fiscal conservative. So if you chose to read further I take no responsibility for sleepless nights, cold sweats, or putting that tune in your head that you can't turn off, Grab a sweater, a bottle of water and your hip waders, cause this could get long, windy and deep! lol

Obviously, what is going on in our world today is unlike anything any of us have ever encountered before, although maybe similar to 9/11,,,,,, different,,,,,, and for the sake of this discussion, I will leave my Tin Foil Hat neatly tucked away on it's shelf, I can conspiracy theory with the best of them, because I believe that although some ideas are WAY out there, I do think there is at least a grain of truth in most of them.

I am sure that most of you have been following U.S. events, esp, with regards to SBA, loan programs, Congress, stock market, etc. The FED is what is causing my sleepless nights in this instance. The long story short is the FED has been buying up U.S. Debt, and not just slowly, or a small amount, they have been buying T notes, now buy Munis, have of course lowered the interest rate to a flat zero, they are pretty much ALL IN. WHY?

The simple answer is of course they are doing what they were designed to do, fill in the highs an lows of our economy and keep all of the balls in the air. BUT, even during the Global meltdown of 2008, they were not invested this heavily, sure the Gov. cranked up the printing presses and we all learned two new words which were Quantitative Easing, but they weren't exposed to this scope or size, QE by itself really didn't affect the FEDs bottom line, because of course the "dollars" were backed by the full will and power of the U.S. Gov, but this is different they could literally wind up with most of the U.S. paper debt, last I read it could top 50 Trillion Dollars, so here is the thinking that I can't shut off.

I have read almost all of the favorable and non favorable books on the Fed, from the Knickerbocker Bank scandal to The Creature of Jekyll Island to Secrets of the Temple, End the Fed etc. So here is my big question, since the FED is "supposedly" not a private entity, or "supposedly" not a Gov. entity, what happens if they wind up with all of the U.S. debt, including Bonds Muni's, T notes etc ( and this is almost hard for me to print) then write it off!!!!!, Who gets hurt? There is no Gold to collect, and would would collect it?

"IF" this were to happen (still having a hard time contemplating this) what would happen next? I mean, it would be different than QE, they are NOT printing more money, there would be no hyper inflation, the value of the money that is out there would seemingly not change? If the Gov. found itself debt free, but yet didn't default on a debt, same with small businesses, Corporations and individuals alike, their credit rating, if anything, would go UP. Nobody is defaulting, the FED would essentially "forgive" all debt.

Now if the FED is indeed owned by the Rockefeller and the Rothchilds etc. this would seem implausible, as they would lose everything on the books, but of course they would have you believe that no one owns the FED, are we far enough down the rabbit hole yet? Are we witnessing a Global Monetary Reset? and no I didn't come up with this on my own, there have been several article hinting about this, but because of my upbringing, I just never believed it was possible,,, Now, I'm just not so sure?? Thoughts?
Click to expand...

I have a slightly different path to the present day as you, but we probably have many things in common. I know many who have seen some of my posts think my Ego is bigger than my 11 Car HIgh Rail with 11 cars on it and I would have to agree that it often does “appear” that way. What I call confidence others call ####iness and either way it is the same thing. I wasn’t raised up poor, but was raised by people who were extremely poor early in life, but somehow they made it to the other side of the tracks. My Grandfather mostly raised me. He had a 6th grade education, fought in the “WW2” and never made more than today’s standards of $50,000 but somehow became a wealthy man. Most of his wealth was knowledge, but some of his wealth also was CD’s (when CD’s were bring 12-14%) Similar to many of your upbringings he taught me that I can do absolutely anything I set my mind to. I can do it in spite of what the world throws at me if I have patience, persistence and the desire to succeed and exceed mediocrity. IF AND ONLY IF I HAVE MY HEALTH.
I am a “Fiscal Conservative” and social Liberal (I don’t give a f@@@ about what others are doing as long as it doesn’t hurt others and they stay the f@@@ out of my business) that kind of Liberal. Not the kind of Liberal who wants to give everyone free stuff and sit home kind of Liberal. But that is where I am today, sitting my butt on the couch drawing the “welfare” IE Unemployment. I would much rather be sitting in my rig going down the highway.

I study financials and business reports more than I study carhaulers and I have decided that we are in completely uncharted waters currently. I won’t debate the real or perceived threat with the Corona Virus, but what we are in is definitely real. It is going to get even more real every day. If we are ever going to be on a sinking ship in our lifetime it is right now. It is going to take some far fetched BS to get us off this ship, but I think it can be done. Do I have the answer, absolutely not. Does anyone or any government have the answer, absolutely not. Can we wing it day by day and make it, absolutely yes. If we don’t make it off this ship every single person on this earth is screwed.
I don’t mean to sound like an alarmist, but this is how I feel. I am personally prepared to do whatever it takes to make it to the other side of the tracks on the BS we are currently going through even if I have to push some stragglers out of the way.

KANSAS TRANSIT · Apr 10, 2020

Banker said: ↑

I have a slightly different path to the present day as you, but we probably have many things in common. I know many who have seen some of my posts think my Ego is bigger than my 11 Car HIgh Rail with 11 cars on it and I would have to agree that it often does “appear” that way. What I call confidence others call ####iness and either way it is the same thing. I wasn’t raised up poor, but was raised by people who were extremely poor early in life, but somehow they made it to the other side of the tracks. My Grandfather mostly raised me. He had a 6th grade education, fought in the “WW2” and never made more than today’s standards of $50,000 but somehow became a wealthy man. Most of his wealth was knowledge, but some of his wealth also was CD’s (when CD’s were bring 12-14%) Similar to many of your upbringings he taught me that I can do absolutely anything I set my mind to. I can do it in spite of what the world throws at me if I have patience, persistence and the desire to succeed and exceed mediocrity. IF AND ONLY IF I HAVE MY HEALTH.
I am a “Fiscal Conservative” and social Liberal (I don’t give a f@@@ about what others are doing as long as it doesn’t hurt others and they stay the f@@@ out of my business) that kind of Liberal. Not the kind of Liberal who wants to give everyone free stuff and sit home kind of Liberal. But that is where I am today, sitting my butt on the couch drawing the “welfare” IE Unemployment. I would much rather be sitting in my rig going down the highway.

I study financials and business reports more than I study carhaulers and I have decided that we are in completely uncharted waters currently. I won’t debate the real or perceived threat with the Corona Virus, but what we are in is definitely real. It is going to get even more real every day. If we are ever going to be on a sinking ship in our lifetime it is right now. It is going to take some far fetched BS to get us off this ship, but I think it can be done. Do I have the answer, absolutely not. Does anyone or any government have the answer, absolutely not. Can we wing it day by day and make it, absolutely yes. If we don’t make it off this ship every single person on this earth is screwed.
I don’t mean to sound like an alarmist, but this is how I feel. I am personally prepared to do whatever it takes to make it to the other side of the tracks on the BS we are currently going through even if I have to push some stragglers out of the way.
Click to expand...

KANSAS TRANSIT · Apr 10, 2020

I know you are into Financials, what is your take on the "possibility" of a Monetary reset as I have described with the FED holding the bag? I mean we are both well aware there is nothing backing up our dollar?

Banker · Apr 10, 2020

KANSAS TRANSIT said: ↑

I know you are into Financials, what is your take on the "possibility" of a Monetary reset as I have described with the FED holding the bag? I mean we are both well aware there is nothing backing up our dollar?
Click to expand...

I don’t have enough knowledge to make an informed response to your direct question. I do know that we can’t borrow our way out of debt, but we have been doing that for many years regardless of the party in the White House. I also don’t think we are going to make it out without many drastic changes. Some good changes, but most will be bad for many years to get to the good. My responses are very generic, but I don’t know that we have a recipe for this disaster that we are in the middle of. Warren Buffett is not the only wisdom I follow, but if he says it, I believe it. I watch him very closely as it often says a lot about where our economy is headed.

KANSAS TRANSIT · Apr 10, 2020

Banker, I know you study Financials, what is your take on the possibility of a Moentary reset with t

Banker said: ↑

I don’t have enough knowledge to make an informed response to your direct question. I do know that we can’t borrow our way out of debt, but we have been doing that for many years regardless of the party in the White House. I also don’t think we are going to make it out without many drastic changes. Some good changes, but most will be bad for many years to get to the good. My responses are very generic, but I don’t know that we have a recipe for this disaster that we are in the middle of. Warren Buffett is not the only wisdom I follow, but if he says it, I believe it. I watch him very closely as it often says a lot about where our economy is headed.
Click to expand...

I used to follow Buffett, but I kinda lost favor with him in 2008, with the banks being "Too big to fail" looking back on it all, Banks Housing, GM, etc, and seeing what happened to that money, I think they should have just let them fail and take the lumps, Jmho

Banker · Apr 10, 2020

KANSAS TRANSIT said: ↑

Banker, I know you study Financials, what is your take on the possibility of a Moentary reset with t

I used to follow Buffett, but I kinda lost favor with him in 2008, with the banks being "Too big to fail" looking back on it all, Banks Housing, GM, etc, and seeing what happened to that money, I think they should have just let them fail and take the lumps, Jmho
Click to expand...

Typically I am not in favor of wholesale bailouts especially to those who haven’t acted financially responsible. I am however generally not in favor of cutting ones nose off despite ones face. Every one would have a different definition of when that applies in the case of bailouts. I am also not a big proponent of cross the board hand outs, **full disclosure I am on unemployment as we speak and will take anything that is legally available to me until I once again earn a living using my car carrier or something else** but I am a proponent of assistance that is paid back in full when one can do so. I also think bankruptcy is a scam, when and if a person or company has the means to pay it back. We all are aware of some very influential people in the US who have filed bankruptcy many times and could pay it back, but don’t.

Hammer166 · Apr 10, 2020

KANSAS TRANSIT said: ↑

Yes, here I am at 3am writing this, sometimes my brain is it's own worst enemy. But something has been bothering me for the last couple of days, and although I am on a couple different forums, there are a handful of guys that have opinions that I respect greatly, most of them are already here, so that is why I didn't start a new thread,,,,,,,, So with apologizes to Banker for high jacking this,,,,,,Here go's nothing.

First and foremost the next paragraph has nothing to do with any kind of ego stroking, but I need you all to understand where I came from and why this bothers me the way it does. As some of you know I started my first business 42 years ago at 21 years old, never had a day of College, and have never worked for anyone since. My grandfathers principles of work hard, work smart, live within your means has always served me well, I am pretty much a hardcore fiscal conservative. So if you chose to read further I take no responsibility for sleepless nights, cold sweats, or putting that tune in your head that you can't turn off, Grab a sweater, a bottle of water and your hip waders, cause this could get long, windy and deep! lol

Obviously, what is going on in our world today is unlike anything any of us have ever encountered before, although maybe similar to 9/11,,,,,, different,,,,,, and for the sake of this discussion, I will leave my Tin Foil Hat neatly tucked away on it's shelf, I can conspiracy theory with the best of them, because I believe that although some ideas are WAY out there, I do think there is at least a grain of truth in most of them.

I am sure that most of you have been following U.S. events, esp, with regards to SBA, loan programs, Congress, stock market, etc. The FED is what is causing my sleepless nights in this instance. The long story short is the FED has been buying up U.S. Debt, and not just slowly, or a small amount, they have been buying T notes, now buy Munis, have of course lowered the interest rate to a flat zero, they are pretty much ALL IN. WHY?

The simple answer is of course they are doing what they were designed to do, fill in the highs an lows of our economy and keep all of the balls in the air. BUT, even during the Global meltdown of 2008, they were not invested this heavily, sure the Gov. cranked up the printing presses and we all learned two new words which were Quantitative Easing, but they weren't exposed to this scope or size, QE by itself really didn't affect the FEDs bottom line, because of course the "dollars" were backed by the full will and power of the U.S. Gov, but this is different they could literally wind up with most of the U.S. paper debt, last I read it could top 50 Trillion Dollars, so here is the thinking that I can't shut off.

I have read almost all of the favorable and non favorable books on the Fed, from the Knickerbocker Bank scandal to The Creature of Jekyll Island to Secrets of the Temple, End the Fed etc. So here is my big question, since the FED is "supposedly" not a private entity, or "supposedly" not a Gov. entity, what happens if they wind up with all of the U.S. debt, including Bonds Muni's, T notes etc ( and this is almost hard for me to print) then write it off!!!!!, Who gets hurt? There is no Gold to collect, and would would collect it?

"IF" this were to happen (still having a hard time contemplating this) what would happen next? I mean, it would be different than QE, they are NOT printing more money, there would be no hyper inflation, the value of the money that is out there would seemingly not change? If the Gov. found itself debt free, but yet didn't default on a debt, same with small businesses, Corporations and individuals alike, their credit rating, if anything, would go UP. Nobody is defaulting, the FED would essentially "forgive" all debt.

Now if the FED is indeed owned by the Rockefeller and the Rothchilds etc. this would seem implausible, as they would lose everything on the books, but of course they would have you believe that no one owns the FED, are we far enough down the rabbit hole yet? Are we witnessing a Global Monetary Reset? and no I didn't come up with this on my own, there have been several article hinting about this, but because of my upbringing, I just never believed it was possible,,, Now, I'm just not so sure?? Thoughts?
Click to expand...

Once upon a time, the thought of this was a nightmare scenario, almost any way you looked at it. But it's a different world, now.

We're the only economy that's really completely recovered from 2008, our economic engine has more or less carried the rest of the world along with it. So it's not like they could really punish us monetarily, they couldn't afford to do so. And while I'd hate to see Japan (and other bondholders,) hurt but such a move, it would give China the kick in the teeth they've had coming for a very long time. ( I could launch a nice diatribe about how foolish we've been towards a country who has our destruction as the world's superpower as their long-term goal.) I guess ideally, if we have to go this route, it should be handled as a strategic war. Wipe out the debt the Fed holds, kick the ChiComs square in the nuts, and ensure our other bond holders that we'll make them whole, long-term? Any path will be pretty chaotic, so shouldn't we use it to our advantage? I'm not enough of a student of monetary policy to know if this could be done without destroying the dollar, but one has to believe the shape of the rest of the world's economies should help to moderate any push back. They simply can't afford for us to utterly collapse.

One thing for sure would have to happen if we did this, our spending has to be gotten under control. There is zero chance of convincing the rest of the world this is a needed and valid action if we immediately continue down the nanny state, sugar daddy path we're currently taking. And I'm frankly not sure such a thing is possible given the current state of our population, the "Ignorant American" trope has never been truer than right now, especially in the area of civic knowledge, and understanding where our success originates. (And I'll stop there with that line of thinking, to not get into a get-the-thread-closed political discussion.)

How far down the chain should such a reset go? That's a harder question, I think. The general public is obviously most in need of debt bailout, but most of that issue is self-inflicted by the spending habits of the same public. Few folks younger than our generation even grasp the concept of saving up to make big purchases, everything is done on credit with little thought of the long-term effects on their lifestyle. And on the other end of the spectrum, forgiving the debt of large corporations would rightfully lead to rioting in the streets. Even though the behaviors of those big corps has largely been driven by the same "What have you done for me, lately?" and "Gotta have it now!" philosophies of the general public, which has all but eliminated the ability of a company to make strategic decisions with long-term positives but short-term negatives. That whole mess largely started in the 80's when the public started to get actively involved in the market. A bad quarter or two can destroy a company, no matter how large the long-term return might be.

And I guess the biggest question is one we can't really get into here: Is this going to hinder or help the agenda of the One World types currently driving one side (well, maybe 65-70%) of our political system?

Banker · Apr 15, 2020

Hammer166 said: ↑

@Banker, I don't remember if you warned about how much fun it was to grease the quiXspinz. Took far longer to do the 10 inboard ratchets than it did to do the other 30! Those inbound ones definitely give you an urge to increase your vocabulary!
Click to expand...

Tomorrow’s workload is heavy! I will be lucky to get it done between breakfast and my first break. Next lube time for quick spins should be a fraction of the past ones.

Brandonpdx · Apr 16, 2020

KANSAS TRANSIT said: ↑

I used to follow Buffett, but I kinda lost favor with him in 2008, with the banks being "Too big to fail" looking back on it all, Banks Housing, GM, etc, and seeing what happened to that money, I think they should have just let them fail and take the lumps, Jmho
Click to expand...

He also thinks crypto currency is some passing fad with no inherent value, which, the passage of time seems to have proven that not to be the case. Sure, there was a speculative bubble in Bitcoin a few years ago that popped, but even since then a whole BitCoin has never been anywhere near as afordable as an ounce of gold, so clearly there are plenty of people think it does have value. He says well all you can do is hold it or sell to someone else to which I thought to myself, yeah that’s pretty much all you can do with gold or any other recognized store of value.

All that is to say I don’t think he has it right in everything either.

Hammer166 · Apr 16, 2020

Banker said: ↑

Tomorrow’s workload is heavy! I will be lucky to get it done between breakfast and my first break. Next lube time for quick spins should be a fraction of the past ones. View attachment 327515
Click to expand...

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