When will Dry van freight rates go up?

when everybody else stops pullin a box and starts pullin skateboards,bottles,and parkin lots.

 

The smart assess are giving you the most honest answers. Freight rates go up when shippers have difficulty moving their freight.

All the ######## and moaning in the world about cut rate carriers won't increase demand. And those cut rate carriers? They aren't going anywhere, so better learn to plan around them.


Better questions are:

When does seasonal demand for dry vans typically pick up?
What markets tend to suffer from the largest gap between demand and supply?
How long does that typically last?
What markets are best after that?


You might also want to consider the possibility that rates won't go up for a while. Consider this: the average bull market lasts 4 years; this bull market is over 6 years old (the longest bull market, during the post wwii boom, lasted 9 years). Freight is a leading indicator.

 

Bottles aren't a whole heck of a lot better

 

Supply/Demand
If the shipper or broker can't get it moved at a low rate, they are forced to pay.

 

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — Trucking conditions in the US remained in “modestly positive territory” in February, as measured by the FTR Trucking Conditions Index.
The reading of 7.4 reflected a softening capacity utilization thanks to the hours-of-service suspension, as well as fluctuating diesel prices.
However, FTR says the index is likely to rise into the summer months and beyond, and could hit double-digit positive readings before 2016 as the result of another round of regulations and the resulting drag on trucking productivity.
FTR also warns the index would jump dramatically if the HoS rules currently under suspension are reinstated in September.
“We are beginning to hear of pushback from shippers about the continued rise in freight rates,” said Jonathan Starks, director of transportation analysis with FTR. “While we still expect all-in per mile rates to be fairly flat for most of 2015, base rates for trucking (and specifically contract rates) are still showing solid year-over-year gains. Shippers are seeing two items that cause them to question the continued increases: fuel costs and spot market activity.”
Starks said shippers are wondering why a 40% decline in fuel costs hasn’t been reflected in trucking rates.
“The decade-long gain in acceptance of fuel surcharges has made most of that impact a direct pass-through to the shipper. It just isn’t going to show up in base rates any more,” Starks pointed out.

 

I'm doing good at buck a mile. I don't know bout you hand, we are killinem. [sarcasm off]

 

Rates will go up, once the oil field comes back.

Midland/Odessa 17,000 lay offs. How many extra CDLs is that? That is just the corporations that pay for people eligible for unemployment. What about all the O/O and L/O that haul sand or pipe? They are not part of the 17,000.

 

These shippers are uneducated, not that they care, but a 40% drop in fuel (their numbers) has penciled out to about a 6% decrease in my FUEL cost to roll or about 14 cents a mile. I think in their world 40% drop in the price of fuel should equal a 40% correction with rates but that's not how it works. They don't understand our costs nor do they really care.

 

One of my biggest $ customers asked about rate change with the cost of fuel going down. I offered that it was $0.09 (at that point corresponding to the year before) cheaper a mile: if he wanted his 100 mile haul for $9.00 cheaper than my current rate he was/is welcome to pickup the phone and see what he can find from someone else with no track record of on time every time and everyone is left smiling service that I offer.

He laughed. He pays. Is what it is. Every time they get any kind of fleet in there the rates are cheaper, the just in time deliveries get made weeks late, people get mad and buy elsewhere because they have a bad experience. I don't pull a van, I doubt that makes all the difference.