Will automatic transmissions ever replace manual tranny's in the trucking industry?

Although you are right with the projected future, the deal is that this will open new doors with new opportunities, as usual the old timers will fade away as in the past and the young will excel at new opportunities so for drivers this could be bad but it will be up to them and the marketplace as to what decisions they will have to make. Example, back in the early 70's I worked at a factory that made car and truck frames for the automotive industry, people where losing there hands, arms, fingers, in there punch presses, they went to robotics and had robots to feed the presses, the common worker got displaced and the young tool & die and machine repair had a opportunity to go to school and learn robotics, I worked at Harley-Davidson as a spotter for over a year and at a time there new contract was passed in 2012 and they are going to robotics and as usual all the old timers are fading away all the old time machinists are going bye bye , the young machinists are now given a chance to go to school for robotics for the future as Harley is going to get rid of 700 workers in there plants in Wisconsin and being replaced with robots. Same is going to happen with driverless trucks, if I were you I would start thinking about getting a job for the future, there is going to be a whole new infrastructure that is going to be built or modified or even now with the electronics in trucks nowadays.......

 

Could you folks clarify something for me. In the industry is automatic used for both "hydraulic torque convertor " and "automated manual clutch" designs collectively?

Or is this a discussion about only the hydraulic (auto like) transmissions?

On the autonomous vehicle issue:

When I got out of high school in 1982 I got a free ticket the off shore oil conference. I went straight to the computer section. I remember the futurist groups speech that with in 50 years, we'd have:

Super computers as powerful as a Grey, the size of a show box.
Mini TV's that we could video phone around world with, the size of a pizza box.
World wide hand held phones with no long distance, and a few other things.

Only 20 years latter, 30 years ahead of time, I bought my first Iphone, it was 10x as powerful as a grey, has video conferencing, and played IP TV , and even recorded video, and AT&T gave me free Long distance, and skyp free international calls. Only it was ONE device, and was a whole lot smaller, hardly bigger than a deck of cards.

So when they say in 50 years:

Vehicles will be self driving, and when my washing machine breaks down , I'll just buy a design file off the internet and the 3d printer in my garage will print me a new one: I'm figuring it really happen in between 15-30 years.

And yes I'll be changing careers again in 15-20 years,

By the way, If I was a betting man, I'd bet the 3d printer will suck more out of the transportation industry than any thing else.

 

Automatics are just fine and I hope to be driving one again soon.

As far as "driverless" trucks, I'm throwing my hat in with the "never goin to happen". The reason I say this is because I've been using computers for 20 years. I've been a computer hacker, computer tech and computer programer. The one thing I can tell you with certainty is every computer that has ever been built has crashed unexpectedly at some point. Pretty much anything can make a computer crash. Untill they have a flawless computer to put in these trucks, it's not going to happen.

As far as hacking is concerned, every one of your trucks can already be hacked. Anything that sends/receives a wireless signal can be hacked. Lucky for you, right now it wont cause you to drive into a school bus filled with children. As far as the "terrorist" concern, I'm not worried about them. I'd be more worried about trucking unions/groups doing it to keep drivers in the seat.

THAT being said, I think some day they just might be able to build a computer that does not crash. It will take even longer to be allowed into production. The IT industry would lose billions from lost revenue from repairs.

 

I have about 30 years in the IT field. I can tell you stories about screwed up software!!!. Hopefully driverless tech will be more like Avionics tech, with NO configurable OS, and No loadable software.

But You have a higher opinion of people than I do. Why does the US have the 2nd worst railway safety record, above India? Because we will not spend the money on Positive Train Control. One the most common sources of lead build up in the USA, tire weights, yet it would only cost penny's a wheel to change over to non toxic.

My point is: Even though you are basically correct, there will always be a technical fault risk, and militant risk, the insurers and industry are going to be going, "Yea but the liability costs will pale compared to labor cost savings, if we can just get the accident ratios between drones and humans to be 1:1"

I just think people are misleading themselves into thinking the design goal is total safety, with auto drive. it really only needs to be a little better than human to get social acceptance. Frankly that doesn't take much.

 

It will take a long time for smaller companies to go to automatics, but in the end probably any companies left out there and all trucks will have them. when it becomes cheaper to buy the auto's than the manuals will become a thing of the past -think cars.
Its my opinion that it will also cheapen a drivers wages, Shifting and double clutching was one little skill that you had to have to drive a big truck. If grandma can now drive it, wages will go down -think computer repair. You had to know computer language just a short time ago just to turn one on --now any 10 year old can probably diagnose a problem and repair it with the help of the computer. I am guessing the computer forums are probably talking about low wages now too.
Fuel mileage, not buying it, a manual transmission in the RIGHT hands is more efficient than a automatic.

 

I hate automatics. The only automatic vehicle I ever drive is the yard dog at my company and that's probably the only time it makes sense.

 

[QUOTE="Hang - Man";3711821] --now any 10 year old can probably diagnose a problem and repair it with the help of the computer. I am guessing the computer forums are probably talking about low wages now too.
.[/QUOTE]

One of the reasons I'm career hopping, most of the Techs coming into the field are not much smarted than a 10 year old, and are so focus on tweaking, and game requirements, they cant see the overall flow of things.

and yes entry level salaries in everything other than programing is stalled , or down.

Put I also think this career will last me about 10 years. I foresee a different threat to our incomes. 3d printing. I believe it will do a lot of manufactures, what digital media did to the record / CD industry. There will simply be a lot less shipped.

The fun part of about our online life, 10 years from now , if we're still alive, we can look back at these and see who is correct!!

 

Yep anything that can be dumb ed down will be flooded with people that wouldn't have considered a certain field until it became easy.
30 years ago you passed a very few riders while on a motorcycle, electric start and 2 day free licensing schools came around and now any given sunny weekend and PA is full of packs of motorcycles, if they outlawed electric starts on motorcycles tomorrow -- 80 % of the riders would be gone.
So anyone saying that "Automatics" have no bearing on the trucking industry pay scale haven't lived long enough.

 

"....have no bearing on the trucking industry pay scale haven't lived long enough."

Absolutely. I asked my instructor about how to learn 18 speed (I've only driven a 5 speed) and his answer was. "No company hiring a green driver would "Let you " have a standard. If you make through the first year, rent you a Penske day cab with a stick and just drive it around until get it.

I felt so motivated by that

 

Thats a ridiculous thing for an instructor to say, just my opinion is, only sign on to a company with all automatics as a last resort. Think about this, first i imagine that auto tranny co. are not the norm YET.
Second -lets say you finish school and do your 2 years in a company with automatics.
You move on to find a good paying driving job but they only have manuals - so now all the experience you have on a manual is during school -(2 years ago).
How do you think your pre employment road test will go.