When I started, I made the erroneous assumption that I could operate at a lower cost than the megas for 2 reasons:
1) I had a cheap used truck that was paid off
2) I would save 10cpm+ by getting so much better fuel mileage than the Megas
Item 1 would be true if I was willing to do more mechanical work myself. I wasn't.
Item 2 was significant when I was making my business plans while still a company driver (2011-2013) and when I first started as an owner operator (2014). $3.50 diesel was my anchor and I assumed if prices were to change, they would go up -- afterall, there's only so much oil in the world... Furthermore, while I feared that I may be getting in near the market peak (as far as rates/truck demand), I assumed that my advantage in fuel mileage would hold during a recession.
The following graph shows how wrong I was:
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Aside from a short period around the financial crisis, oil was significantly above historic prices throughout 2005-2013 (that graph is inflation-adjusted). $40-60 oil is a far more likely price over in the next 5 years than $100+
That translates in ~$2/gal diesel, not 4. If I get 9mpg, and the mega gets 7mpg, I have a 13cpm advantage at $4, but only a 6cpm advantage at $2/gal.
But not only was my assumption about $3.50+ diesel wrong, I didn't realize that oil typically plummets during a recession -- meaning that when I'd be struggling the most, my competitive advantage would simultaneously be eroding away. That is a fragile system...
Double Yellow's Company Driver to Independent Thread
Discussion in 'Ask An Owner Operator' started by double yellow, Nov 5, 2014.
Page 158 of 198
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iledbett, ramblingman, bbechtel16 and 7 others Thank this.
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With a paid for truck, no recruiting, no driver retention costs, no office/administrative, costs, and working dry van type freight, which always moves, you are way robust IMHO. Although your income will certainly fluctuate, you are relatively immune from the type of catastrophic fluctuation that could befall someone who is leasing a new heavy haul truck and a 9 axle to work the oil patch.
I do think that you should not buy an older, high-mileage truck unless you have a space, the tools and the knowledge to do almost all the inevitable repairs.vikingswen, Grijon and blairandgretchen Thank this. -
Agreed though. I think DY covered many of the smaller repairs himself, but an inframe or gearbox type repair is going to hit the shop.
I'm still a fan of the 'cash truck ' model.vikingswen, bbechtel16, Grijon and 5 others Thank this. -
I have appreciated the fact that DY is quite analytical in his approach to this industry. But, good fuel mileage only goes so far in this business.
As someone stated, it's supply and demand in this business. There are good times and bad.
I commend DY for getting his own authority and his honesty in his experiences in this industry.
Trucking is tough. As a guy who drove for 20 years, I've always believed there's got to be an easier way to make a living. But I kept doing it anyway.
I think there must be something wrong with me .rank, bbechtel16, Terry270 and 1 other person Thank this. -
There are ups and downs in all industries ( dam near anyone could make $$$ in real estate in, say 2004-2006....every one was flipping houses and becoming a tycoon...then 2008-20010...., finance in 1996-2000 was easy....then 2000-2003 .......and so on...)
My job as a husband and a father is to provide for my family....as long as I can do so and the sound of my trucks turbo spooling up is still music to my ears (as opposed to a getting a depressing, soul crushing feeling every time I open the trucks door..) then I'll continue being an owner operator...when either situation changes, I'll sell the truck and do something else!!!
The fact is, making a living (in any industry) is a hard thing, might as well pick something you love ad stick with it!!!!! Some people are just serial entrepreneurs, whatever works for you. That's the beauty of the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave!!!!
Thanks DY for a Very informative thread!
God Bless you all, and God bless the USA!!!! -
vikingswen, fordconvert, MJ1657 and 2 others Thank this.
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And yes, every small business I see has pressures akin to ours.
From an immigrant, that could have not achieved the same thing back 'home', I appreciate it every day.
God bless this weird and wonderful country, including its over regulations.larry2903, Iron-Man, vikingswen and 12 others Thank this. -
DY, is the trailer still for sale? If so, are the logistics post 4' or 2' on center? If 2' could you post inside and undercarriage pictures?
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The danger of analyzing your competitive position based on one or two "cost advantages" is that costs are only half of the picture; revenue is the other half.
As an independent, keeping a continuous stream of revenue is difficult. Keeping the wheels turning is hard enough. Doing it at an attractive rate is another.
Think of it this way: cost per mile is discussed in cents per mile, but revenue can fluctuate a dollar per mile and more. Costs are important, but revenue is critical.iledbett, larry2903, spyder7723 and 4 others Thank this. -
any updates? sold the truck? still got it? working? not working? what's the scoop....
Rocks, Grijon, fordconvert and 2 others Thank this.
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