Celadon on the ropes...

Discussion in 'Celadon' started by double yellow, May 3, 2017.

  1. tampadedicated

    tampadedicated Light Load Member

    122
    251
    Apr 11, 2017
    0
    Finally cracked the code to what transpired

    C026EFDB-452E-4602-AE64-48C6A1C22011.jpeg
     
    Infosaur, Jarhed1964 and Bud A. Thank this.
  2. Truckers Report Jobs

    Trucking Jobs in 30 seconds

    Every month 400 people find a job with the help of TruckersReport.

  3. Opus

    Opus Road Train Member

    16,117
    90,131
    Dec 18, 2011
    South GA
    0
    Well. there ya go....lol
     
    Jarhed1964 and tampadedicated Thank this.
  4. Professor No-Name

    Professor No-Name Road Train Member

    3,709
    7,044
    Nov 26, 2016
    0
    No offense intended but thanks to some of your post. For the stuff about stocks and the stuff that says plaintiff and defendant on the paper well wow we're not all lawyers and financial gurus. But kudos man keep up the good work.
     
    Jarhed1964 Thanks this.
  5. Bud A.

    Bud A. Road Train Member

    2,046
    11,309
    May 10, 2015
    Mountain Time
    0
    "One Celadon insider attributed the company’s ultimate failure to management’s strategic decision to undercut its competitors’ freight rates with the hope to make up for the reduced margins with increased volume."

    Ah yes, the old
    "We're selling 1,000 widgets a week at $100 apiece. If we sell them for $90, I project our volume will increase to 2,000 widgets per week!"
    "That's great! Now what do we do about the problem where it costs us $110 to make the widgets?"
     
    Jarhed1964 Thanks this.
  6. tampadedicated

    tampadedicated Light Load Member

    122
    251
    Apr 11, 2017
    0
    Oh, none taken at all, perfectly fine.
    For me, the way I look at stocks (for Celadon), its just the visual representation of the time span as it applies to the bankruptcy, the duration of, impending, and ongoing collapse from a 1000ft view.

    Most people will look at stocks for a sign of a company's intrinsic value, strength, market capitalization, and potential increase in shareholder EPS (earnings per share per quarter) combined with debt/asset ratios, which are whats used to determine their valuation as a whole.
    That's an important subset of data investors look at before investing.
    I do that too, but in this instance I'm using the same things, except i don't care what the intrinsic value is.

    When you go and start looking at the SEC quarterly filings, earnings reports and so on, you can take court filing, and match the stock prices at any one given time, and basically see in real time when the acts of fukery started, because its a timeline, and see the effect it had on a company, which is reflected in its stock price, percentile of institutional investors (Hedge Funds, Equity Firms) confidence, internal people like executives either buying or selling large positions they hold as employees, and over all industry and social sentiment.

    If you see a company that normally trades at say, 10 million shares per session, and on Tuesday you see the normally traded 10 million has jumped to 20 million, that's an indication somethings about to happen and someone knows something, because if they didn't, they wouldn't be either buying, or liquidating large positions.

    Now take all that above, and say they are releasing the earnings report for the last quarter on that Friday, but the shares moved that much on Tuesday, that gives you an insight into how the earnings report is gonna go. The bad part, unless you know what you're looking for, is that you wont really know which direction that share is going. That extra 10M traded, could be people selling off because the ER will be #######, it could be hedge funds buying large positions, or selling large positions, could be the executives selling or buying, so you really have to be cautious or you'll lose/win big time.

    The way I do that as above, is i read all the stuff they have filed with the SEC as required by law, earnings calls, quarterly reports, yearly reports, i look at debt to asset to free cash to sales and also insider trading in the last quarter. If you see big moves, its something to watch close.

    When you run into an issue like they have right now, you can go back and compare the reports, with the revenue, with the contracts and new business, against the funds they have, growth, debt ratios, and if you see a jump or change outside the norm, or a fast move on stocks with no real catalyst on why, and compare it to what they reported, youll see fukery, thus the stock chart and visually being able to see where these changes happened by day, hour, min, week, month, quarter. You can just look at that and see what a company has done over the last 3-5yrs. It basically the worlds largest game of connect the dots lol.

    If they're stating the company is worth $X.XX, but the total revenue and earnings doesn't match that valuation because they dont have the sales or return as profitable, they have a hard time getting secured investor capital, bank loans, rolling lines of credit etc etc .... and new investors wont come in, which basically stagnates the company's path to profitability and they're considered a negative equity investment because they wont have the means or backing to repay an investor.

    In Celadons situation, they were basically treading water, and those investors came in and lent the money for them to stay afloat, and in return Celadon issued them warrants, which basically gives them the ability to purchase stock at a certain price, in a certain time, but they had to meet specific metrics in a certain time, like, earnings report needs to show at least a 1% growth from previous earnings, new contracts in the amount of $X.XX ..... if they did not, the investors reserved the right to liquidate their positions, and call due the invested money, which if they cant do, the secured investor capital and rolling credit lines they had get stopped, and they have to file either a chapter 11 or 13 to stave off the recalled investment capital, and they have to reach an agreement with the investors to put forth efforts to make that capital and investment as a whole positive.

    Celadon did this, i think 4 times since 2014, and it keeps rolling over like a used car balance on a new loan. They tried to work with the creditors to save the company but that fell through, and now have no choice but to shut down and file.
     
  7. tampadedicated

    tampadedicated Light Load Member

    122
    251
    Apr 11, 2017
    0

    Precisely, 100%. They hedged the entire company on: " i will sell crack for 3 bucks instead of 30, and triple my customer base, and get all new caddys for my G's yo"

    When they realized it wasn't working, they started using trucks in place of crack WaryUntimelyHake-size_restricted.gif
     
    Bud A., x1Heavy, Jarhed1964 and 3 others Thank this.
  8. bzinger

    bzinger Road Train Member

    16,185
    62,446
    Dec 10, 2014
    omaha , ne
    0
    X1heavy you now have competition for the windiest post lol .
     
    lynchy, Knucklehead, x1Heavy and 6 others Thank this.
  9. tampadedicated

    tampadedicated Light Load Member

    122
    251
    Apr 11, 2017
    0
    LOL, and just think, that's the simplified shorter version of what i had.
    Theres a whole list of technical type #### I didn't even get into LOL
     
    Bud A. and bzinger Thank this.
  10. Majestic 670

    Majestic 670 Heavy Load Member

    908
    807
    May 10, 2016
    Landcruiser
    0
    nowadays everyone knows these companies will leave you out on the side of the road.I read they are expected to file bankruptcy largest in trucking history. I pray that everyone have a way home as it seems these companies always go out in this fashion. During holidays and winter they always hire up to the last min only to upset drivers and or families. Celadon is one of the many mega companies that cook books. In my opinion most companies that went with Quality was in financial trouble and needed to raise(steal) capital from unsuspecting drivers. Review financials from most companies who let drivers lease from Quality you will find they needed to raise capital. 500-1400 wk for a tractor. 52000 a yr in notes 45000-60000 fuel 6000 yr for insurance on a inflated value truck, Quality prices trucks in such a way that you will fail eventually. My question is why is quality headquarters still the same is celadon
     
    Bud A. Thanks this.
  11. tampadedicated

    tampadedicated Light Load Member

    122
    251
    Apr 11, 2017
    0
  • Truckers Report Jobs

    Trucking Jobs in 30 seconds

    Every month 400 people find a job with the help of TruckersReport.