Why now is not the time

Oscar the KW · Dec 10, 2020

Dino soar said: ↑

It's the question that all prospective owner-operators ask, or at least they should be asking

What is the right time to get in?

It is not right now, that I can tell you.

One of the customers that I run loads for, the account manager and I had a nice discussion the other night.

He said that even the largest of suppliers that he deals with anyway, are working everything like the spot Market.

Now I'm not an expert at all in how all of this works with Brokers and shippers, but he was saying that the rates are higher right now because there's so much uncertainty with Coronavirus.

And the reason why that is, is because no one knows what's going to happen. He said it's possible after the vaccine comes out that the rates may drastically drop.

So the loads that I run for them he said that rate could drop 50%. Now if it dropped 50% I probably wouldn't be interested in running it, but if I had to I could because everything is paid for. But to me that's a small amount of money for a lot of work.

Also, if there is a new Administration you have no idea what's going to happen. You have no idea what their effect on the economy is going to be you have no idea what their policies are going to be, you have no idea what they will do and how that will affect Freight.

So then the age-old question is, when is the right time?

The answer to that is in the middle of an Administration. When things either have been on the decline and improving, or if things are at least steady and you saved plenty of money in case they decline.

Trying to get in now is kind of like a pyramid scheme that you're on the bottom part of it, or a hot crap game that you're walking in on right before it cools off.

Everywhere that I travel I see trucks overflowing out of rest areas and truck stops.

If everything goes on a steep decline you're going to see auctions and dealerships overflowing with trucks.

Be smart and don't let that be you.

Just a little friendly advice.
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Typically in an election year rates are down because of the uncertainty of the unknown. With the rona this has not been anything close to typical. Truth is, nobody really has any idea as to what’s around the corner.

Whether or not it’s a good time to get in is anyone’s best guess. If someone has the smarts, and is determined enough, and financially sound they can make it thru whatever is ahead.

gentleroger · Dec 10, 2020

"semi" retired said: ↑

I didn't listen when people told me I was nuts, and that was in 1988. You know what? They were right,,,
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You're not nuts . . . . You're BOLTS!

Midwest Trucker · Dec 10, 2020

Ridgeline said: ↑

Well no.

first let’s get something straight, the time of the Spanish influenza we had a deep recession coming out of a war we didn’t need to be involved with, then a boom because of the unfettered speculation in the markets and the unbridled economy - we have neither.

it was a labor economy than, we don’t have that any more.

it was also a time when our political system was still founded on the principle that the people controlled what happened in the states and Washington.

right now the markets are in flux, we don’t know what will happen, we don’t control our political system and (warning not making this political post) the president right now is what we have that has actually helped us with a possible president elect being one who hates the trucking industry and has it targeted under the facade of climate change to punish it for his personal loses as he has said many times before. This coupled with the fact that an incoming administration is more aligned with the values of big business in many industries, the more or less independently centric system we have in this industry will be further stifled with big business screaming about driver shortages and the push for semi-autonomous or fully automated trucks in the near future as part of the green deal and the need to have more centralized control in the industry to reflect the changes made in Washington. It is a big cluster****** for all of us overall.

many who are like me, are very nervous about the future, I see a return of archaic regulations created on a whim of bureaucratic and if (again not making this a political post) the senate goes to one side from what it is now, then I can see regulation creation safeguards being gutted for expedience for programs like the green new deal with no recourse through congress at that point. Regulations will also be on top of the new taxes that will be imposed on us, slamming independents even more, when we should have less taxes to deal with. Yellen (treasury Secretary nominee) has come out and proposed a flexible fuel tax for all vehicles nationwide on top of the taxes we pay, her idea is to start with a 40¢ per gallon tax on gasoline and having congress give her the approval to raise and lower it, raise it as high as $1 a gallon, diesel of course would be higher. Coupled with the move to reinstate the irs tax regulation enforcement, we will see a substantial higher taxes with a return of strict ww2 collection methods, already proposed.

so this really isn’t opinion, it seems to be the direction we are going in, it will gut the industry of marginal operators to successful small fleets and we will again have the revolving door spinning faster than ever before to feed the big carriers.
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That is a lot to think about there Ridgeline. I appreciate your insight on this.

Oscar the KW · Dec 10, 2020

Midwest Trucker said: ↑

That is a lot to think about there Ridgeline. I appreciate your insight on this.
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I hope like hell he’s wrong on all of it too.

Savor the Flavor · Dec 10, 2020

gentleroger said: ↑

You're not nuts . . . . You're BOLTS!
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The inimitable Roger... he's here all week, folks.

Oakland Raiders Forever · Dec 10, 2020

No better time than the present

Eldiablo · Dec 11, 2020

Oscar the KW said: ↑

I hope like hell he’s wrong on all of it too.
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No he’s not wrong. Just listen to what these fools say. They tell you their plans but yet more fools still vote for them and then get mad when they do what they say.

JoeTruck · Dec 11, 2020

It doesn't matter who the President is. The Federal Reserve will keep creating money (debt) until it all comes tumbling down.

jeffman164 · Dec 11, 2020

Joe Truck said: ↑

It doesn't matter who the President is. The Federal Reserve will keep creating money (debt) until it all comes tumbling down.
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Spot on.

Flatbed28 · Dec 11, 2020

I’m about to jump back in but that’s after 18 months of running owner op until the pandemic hit and went company. Starting to see freight market stabilize so going back in sink or swim.

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