CFI Driver's What's Your 20? (2017 edition)

Knew about the biopsy... didn't realize you were admitted... prayers going out for good results on that.

 

I went long. Popped pretty nicely yesterday too...

Celadon has been flirting with bankruptcy since last summer, but I reckon if they survived this long (and if banks are still willing to lend them money) it probably won't go under considering how good the market has been.

But we'll see - they haven't filed financials for over 6 months so you're kind of blind aside from knowing they sold Quality leasing, the cdl mills, & a flatbed division...

But if they survive, they've got over 2,000 trucks which should easily be profiting $200/week in this market (ignoring the fact they'll have to write down a massive 1-time loss from Quality leasing). That's ~$20 million profit against ~28 million shares, or ~ $0.75/share before you even count the brokerage part of Celadon's business.

So that should set a price floor around $7.50 with $15+ not being crazy -- again, if they survive...

Wild-### guess:
20% chance they go bankrupt: -$4
20% they are taken private for $6: +$2
60% chance they survive and trade for $10+: +$6
.2×(-4) + .2×2 + .6×6 = +$3.2

$3.20 expected profit / $4 investment = 80% expected ROI

And with that, I'll leave you with a quote from Warren Buffett: "Beware of geeks bearing formulas."

 

Nice!!!

 

ouch my head hurts all that math lol well getting closer to school time few more months cant wait to bother rooster on the road lol hahahahahah

 

That time

That time will fly by! I know we thought it was gonna go slowly, buy it seemed like one week we're getting do physicals and the next we're on the bus headed to Springfield. Can't believe we've already been here 3 weeks. Should be testing next week or the week after.

 

Flying vajayjay in Eloy... sleeping days driving nights but bad news is a/ c isn't working...79 degrees...may have to take the I-80 detour to Waco... another facepalm moment brought to you by Rooster

Pre-planned for Waco to Hattiesburg... will try to tough it out...

 

lol open a window lol bird might fly away hahahaha at least wake up all the truckers in the truck stops lol Roosters are good for making a lot of noise lol hahahaha

 

All windows open, upper vent open to exhaust heat... look like forever until sundown... might give up Hattiesburg...kw dealer in Waco...


Putting in for home time soon... Could be a long ride to Florida without a/c... thinking I better get it fixed now.

 

Those are my noisy cousins.

 

What’s wrong with your AC? No air flow? Something else?