Autonomous (self driving) trucks is inevitable

What works in a lab, or on a test track is way different than real world scienereos. Trust me, I have worked for many companies that use the front and side radar systems that are the backbone of the safety systems on these self driving trucks. Not much has changed in regards to accuracy between what we had 10 or 15 years ago and what is on todays trucks. I had a 2021 Cascadia that had the system that would actually bring you to a complete stop by itself, then move by itself again when traffic started moving again. The problem is, it would also slam on the brakes at overpasses, guardrails when the road curved on a slight uneven section if the road, a mountain...yes, it got freeked out and went into red collision warning mode when I was traveling out west and the road curved thru a cutout section of a mountain. All of it's front radar technology could be blocked by....snow flurries that weren't heavy enough to cover the warm road, but would stick to the cold plastic. It also had lane departure warnings, which could be fooled by the white line going down an exit ramp, or when it disappeared when an entrance ramp was merging. It also freaked out when I passed over some sections of road that had the white salt lines where they were pretreating before a winter storm. It also picked up the tar sealer stripes at certain times of the day when the sun was reflecting off of it. After experiencing the most up to date technology on these trucks, I can say, 10-15 years at the least before we aren't needed other than to be a ride along passenger in case something goes wrong. I mean, Tesla has had autopilot on their cars for a long time, and you read about crashes fairly regularly where the driver was killed because it didn't see the semi it drove under. Imagine the carnage if a 80k lb semi did that...and the legal fight that would come about from just 1 serious crash where an innocent family was injured or killed because of failed technology. Hell, Werner is fighting an $89 million settlement where one of their trucks was just in the wrong place at the wrong time during a winter storm where the other vehicle was 100% at fault. Imagine how much larger that settlement would have been if it were a self driving truck.

 

What will happen to all of the bloated government bureaucracies and their employees who thrive on regulating the trucking industry, and the drivers? Where will the DOT generate income without the ability to fine drivers for violations? Who will become the scapegoat when something goes terribly wrong and people are seriously maimed, or killed, or property is damaged?
In the transportation industry, for example, aircraft can virtually fly itself, yet airlines still require human pilots. Trains can operate autonomously, yet there is still a need for a human operator to be in attendance. Having previously worked in manufacturing, I can tell you that all of the production technologies used are still operated, or attended by a person.
My answer to this is that there will always have to be a human actor involved in the operation of autonomous equipment...

 

Sure we will see some level of automation. But barring a HUGE jump forward in tech it wont be for decades just going off current progress. oh im sure some local routes maybe even a few long hauls will get autonomious trucks but FAR more likely within the next couple of decades is you will get something like drone trucks where you have shifts in a control room controling them in a line or even a driver in a lead truck with 10 drones following him around.

You also cant automate specialized fields such as tanker, dump trucks, logging and more then a few others because we dont have AIs that can adapt fast enough to changeing conditions to make it viable. You also wont see it in places like vail pass any time soon or going through wyoming with light loads. Even if the tech was here today it would still take a decade to roll it out.

Make no mistakes we will see some automation coming to trucking, but drivers wont just be replaced in the forseable future. Even if we could, there are decades of buracratic bloat and lawyering to do. If an autonomious truck hits a schoolbus full of kids whos fault is it. Is it the shipper? the reciver? the truck manufacturer? the programmer? the truck brand? who pays out? How do these trucks get fueled? what happens if they lose a tire or their computer goes on the fritz? how do construction companys mark a road under construction for these trucks? what happens when the GPS is showing an outdated route or is wrong?

We wont see our jobs go away for a while yet. And even then it will only change, not vanish into smoke.

 

When they automate trains that are confined to a rail, I'll start to worry. There's a lot of infrastructure involved in phasing out the human. Automating a truck is the easy part.

 

Look, I am a realist, unlike those that kept their heads buried in the sand and thought E logs would never happen, I knew they would eventually be the norm.

Those same people don’t think autonomous trucks are coming. I believe within the next 10 years autonomous trucks will be the norm for longhaul and regional trucking. The technology is already running loads across the country, and it will only continue to improve over the coming years. So the naysayers can keep denying it’s eventually coming, or start to make a plan to either adapt to the future of trucking or get into another industry.

 

As automation engineer with background in military aerospace field i would tell you the automation can be done only in predicted and pre calculated environment. Human action is unpredictable. What will work in LA will fail in Atlanta.
The only way autonomous tracks can run IMO if Elon digs dedicated tunnels between major cities for trucks running freight from hub to hub.
But we already have railroad.

 

Of course there is a fallacy about the shortage, more the excuse to invest in this technology. The same goes for rail, if it was receiving the same investment that other forms of transportation have gotten, freight costs would drop.

 

I've got 3 words for you, pal, "chill out, man". By your posting time, I see you're like me, can't sleep, but the reality is, you put in your time, and you can rest assured, you did a good job. Let it go to hell, my friend, we have the credentials to say, "you ( govt) brought this on yourselves,,,have a nice day". I shudder to think what the future will bring, and what drivers will have to deal with. Maybe self driving trucks in certain applications, but this country is in a world of hurt with much bigger problems than self driving trucks,, and getting worse, and we can rest peacefully, knowing it was none of our doing. Okay, maybe SOME regs were our fault, but this instant gratification BS is the kiss of death. My advice, enjoy the retirement, and sit back and watch it go down the crapper.

 

Finally more trucks in the right lane instead of middle.