Crude oil is $86 today.... beginning of the end?

those who refuse to learn from history will repeat it, and suffer again...

same things were being said in 2008.

same things were being said in the late 70's early 80's crash.

Those that don't think the boom is over, need to pay attention to those with the most to loose.

Halliburton set to buy Baker Hughes.... the consolidation phase is in full swing.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/halliburton-in-talks-to-buy-baker-hughes-2014-11-13-161035247

 

Glen beck is going to crash our economy again? Well that sucks.

 

$30/bbl oil was the norm 10 years ago, I have a hard time believing oil became unprofitable at that price in 10 years with dramatically better technology. Now might be the time to refill the SPRO, which would also serve to raise the price of oil.

 

10 years ago the wells were vertical to a depth of 5,000 to 8,000 ft.

todays wells are vertical to a depth of 10,000 to 12,000 ft, then horizontal for another 5,000 ft... Much more expensive to drill. And the wells are falling off faster than the old vertical wells did.

The actual technology to reach the oil of 10 years ago has not changed...and those shallow wells are profitable today, just not many left to be drilled. All of the newer oil is at deeper depths, locked into tighter shale, which takes the 1940's tech of hydraulic fracturing.

Will the end be this week, slim to none. All depends on what the alliance between Russia/China and OPEC does. Saudi Arabia has already announced they will not reduce production to stop the price drop.

The SPRO holds 727 million barrels of oil and as of october 2014, was at 691 million barrels.

total world consumption of oil per day is 83.6 million...

The USA produces approximately 11 million barrels a day.

 

There is just no way to get around the fact that there is more oil being produced globally than is being consumed. That always has and always will cause a price reduction. Some price reductions are worse than others and some last longer than others. This particular scenario has the potential to drop the price drastically...even from where it is now.

Anyone who believes that a 20-25% reduction in price isn't going to throttle production is in some serious denial.

I'm not saying the sky is falling and especially not saying that the prices will never return, but I wouldn't advise anyone to bet the farm on having a job in the oil patch until we some changes in the supply/demand cycle. If you have a job in the patch now, hang on tight and hope for the best, but most of all, save, save, save. Prepare yourself financially. Then, if the prices do shoot back up and the boom continues, you'll still have that cash stashed away...hard to beat that.

 

$30 a barrel 10 years ago? Are you kidding? It hasn't been that cheap since the nineties. You're not considering inflation. Costs have doubled, if not more, from 10 years ago. We spend about $200-250 a week in groceries. 10 years ago it was $100-$150. Inflation and outright mismanagement, or more precisely outright robbery, from that den of thieves and central planners known as the federal reserve is the cause of every economic angst and pain this country ever suffered. Those criminals should be thrown in jail or worse.

 

I work mostly for EOG and they haven't slowed yet but the word is at 65$ a barrel drilling will cease and the pumpjacks will be slowed way down to barely moving,enough to keep line pressure anyway. The condensate having its viscosity changed to be able to sell more in export might be the saving grace.

 

Ding Ding Ding winnah winnah chicken dinnah! The variable those ######## cant control is the cost of fuel. Manipulate yes control not so much

 

There has been significant inflation in "some" areas like food, not too much in others, definitely not a double on average. Regardless 10 years ago oil was NOT $100-$150/bbl.
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Table.asp
http://www.fedprimerate.com/crude-oil-price-history.htm Dec '08-Feb '09 dipped into the 30's
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RWTC&f=A 2004 first year oil average $40 in decades, sub $40 all through the 80's and 90's and early 2000's.

 

Halliburton in talks to buy BH

So it begins...

http://www.click2houston.com/news/halliburton-baker-hughes-considering-merger/29714174