Crude oil is $86 today.... beginning of the end?

OK what's IRR?. Good article

 

Internal Rate of Return, or how much profit is made per investment.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/en...w-oil-prices-are-destroying-Opecs-power.html

 

Early on in this thread, I predicted $60/barrel oil in the near future. I believe that I may have been off a bit. I believe we will see much lower than $60. I'm now convinced we will see $50/barrel and with the way markets tend to over correct, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see $40/barrel in the next few months, especially 1st qtr of 2015.

While this price drop will cost many of us our jobs in the oil patch, I believe that the low prices will spur the us economy to the point that maybe we could actually return home and work a regular job again. It won't pay what the oilfield pays, but it won't require the sacrifices either. And...for those who have been smart and saved the money... hopefully you can return home in a better financial position than when you left.

The party is over for the foreseeable future. It may..or may not... take a few months for all this to come to fruition, but it most definitely will. Unless, of course, we see some drastic change in the underlying factors effecting supply vs demand.

 

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/11/2...-and-prices-fall-further.html?_r=0&referrer=

I especially liked this:

 

I'm already looking for another job outside of the patch. If I stay I will have to move to doing strictly saltwater however if they slow production down quite a bit the demand for hauling s/w will diminish as well. The thought of going back OTR again makes me nauseous!

 

Just checked the early trading on the overseas market. Oil at 67.75 this morning and back up slightly to 69.

 

It will take some time to see the full effect. And OPEC's inaction may force action by others, including US producers. I don't think it will take all that much to reverse the spiraling oil prices, but I do think there are severe over supply issues in the near term and the mechanics involved in correcting the issue will likely have a negative impact on oilfield jobs.

The oil industry is far from going away, but the "boom" will soon be gone. The long term jobs will stay, the short term jobs will begin to fade away soon.

The one thing that will change this scenario with or without any action, once the drilling slows, is that these shale wells seem to drop off really quickly. So, if just the drilling slows, the supply will drop within 6 months.

 

Yes exactly, within a year the wells I service go from say 500 to 800 barrels a day to 100-200 barrels a day even lower. We have been swabbing on one for 10 days to get it back above 400 a day.

 

It's gonna get crummy before long,

be well prepared.