Freight Volume in a recession? What to expect.

Backup plan?

Maybe. Or maybe not.

In the past--as the economic situation worsened, other people like yourself also looked to trucking as something of an economic "parachute". But...trucking companies are (in some ways) just like everybody else--as the business climate worsens, they cut back, and offer fewer job opportunities. And the opportunities that they continue to offer often have higher/stiffer qualifications (req'd experience).

Thus--what you'll likely encounter is A LOT of other people (much like yourself) competing for A LOT fewer driving jobs. That's not really much of a "backup" plan.

On the flip side--if trucking was still your "backup" economic plan, but you instead already had 2+ years of CDL driving experience (with a clean driving record, no drug test refusals or positive results, & no citations--current or pending)--PLUS....ALL the available CDL endorsements (tanker, hazmat, doubles/triples), PLUS....a valid, current TWIC card, PLUS....a valid, current US passport--THEN your trucking backup plan would in fact be much more "rock solid."

Simply put: trucking companies put a very high value on experience, credentials, and of course....a clean record. At the end of the day--it's all about "safety". If you bring those to the table....you're pretty much "golden".

To your other question: is trucking really all that recession-resistant?

Best answer: based on what I've witnessed....it really all "just depends"...on at least several factors. With that said....some types of freight do indeed tend to be more recession-resistant than others. Like I suggested earlier/above: think "food"...or "food-related".

To help keep the discussion fair--a non-food example: in the last deep recession (during covid), I was pulling railroad intermodal duty, out of Atlanta. There, we stayed crazy busy, throughout that recession. So busy....that Schneider finally started hiring more drivers for Atlanta intermodal. Meanwhile--drivers elsewhere in many places spent too much time sitting, and waiting for loads.

If you had studied most of my BOLs during that time...what you would have seen were household staples--and NOT just food. Most of my intermodal loads were for: Walmart, Target, General Mills, P&G, and the like.

But intermodal duty is NOT something I would recommend for a brand new driver, with no previous CDL experience elsewhere.

Hope some of this helps you out...later on "down the road".

-- Lual

 

Check this chart out.
Get a box a tissues ready.

 

A little bit of everything, id go with all the stuff people couldnt get in the early panicdemic was getting caught up in 2021-22 pushing volume up. Now inventory is high and all the rumblings of recession are making people nervous. We are overdue for recession but it got pushed back by the massive amounts of spending over the last 3 years, money has run out and inflation is going to make the delayed recession worse.

 

IMO poeple are just sick of crap. Less is more. A paid off house is better than a new car.

A balanced budget is more important than gadgets, trinkits, new and/or excess furniture, new TV's, bla bla bla.

Young people really don't care and IMO will consume FAR less than previous generations.

I just get a sense that people don't want to be bothered anymore. Like just work, home, play and that is it.

No more mass consumtion of disposable crap.

So....#3 I would say.

 

Yep

 

Pardon my ignorance (I'm not a O/O) but are you talking rates or volume? It's huge either way, but if it's rates...Wow!

 

Volume, sorry I didn't clarify.

 

A couple of more ties to make:

Refer is tied to food, think we can all agree with that.
I do understand that the frozen warehouses are starting to have issues with too much product in storage.

Dry Van ties to shelf stable food and consumer goods.
Storage facilities are filling up with late arrival seasonal product, that may need to be stored for a year or blown out at a discount. Lead time for delivery has caused stored inventory increases in consumer products that have had a slowdown in demand, like home appliances and home spruce up stuff. Folks pulled forward their remodel projects during Covid so now we see a demand slump. Hoarders are using down their stash of toilet paper.

Flat Bed tends to transport construction and manufacturing stuff.
The demand for the outflow of the small manufactured goods is probably off due to finished goods building up, due to lower consumer demand. Construction also is a bit more seasonal, Not sure if things have warmed up enough to start the demand for truckloads of lumber yet. Also have not been following new housing/construction starts in the news to project how much it will cycle up this year. Would also need to look at capital asset buying trends to see changes in volume for A.C. units, construction equipment, On site generators, and other large stuff.

Lots of pieces in a big puzzle..... For the durable goods I think we are in a demand valley after a peak during Covid, may be lowered further by consumers tightening their personal budgets. Currently flat beds are being affected by the combined lower consumer demands and low seasonal demands.