Latest DAT projection: rates are peaking right now

I book a day or two in advance vs waiting till last minute 2-4pm loads

 

Ideally, next time it happens, I'll focus on gardening...just do one load here and there... I promised myself to build a big ### gazebo.

That graph looks a little artificial...I don't think that you can predict rates and freight volumes based on the past data....but maybe...maybe.

 

That graph has us 2 or 3 months past the peak, i wouldnt be surprised if we are at the peak now, but i wouldnt be betting they come down as far as the graph says as quickly as it says either. Predicting the future is hard. But flatbed rates wont run down much till thanksgiving if past years are any indication. That might be an aggregate or reefer only graph

 

Will continue at least through start of 2022. Hard to see realistically past 6 months but closer we get to end of year then can see 6 months out from there.

 

Fair, but how sure are you that magically printing 3.4 trillion dollars into existence doesnt mean these rates are here to stay and the price of everything hasnt caught up just yet?

I don't *think we are in runaway inflation mode but anyone that says the "stimulus" didnt do anything or only modestly increased inflation simply cant be trusted with an abacus much less a calculator

 

That's merely a forecast (guess). Not even close. Let's look at freight drivers:

1) Fuel A gallon of diesel has risen more than 91 cents in the last year (38%) due to Biden's war on domestic energy production. PLEASE DON'T BAN ME, uh, the color of Trump's tie.
2) Inflation The average used car was just over $20,400 in May, which is more than a 46% increase from 2020. Inflation is at a 30-year high. There will be a push in Congress next week to push through an additional $3.7 Trillion in government spending. I wonder what that will do for inflation?
3) Shortages One of the reasons for the jump in used car prices is a shortage of computer chips used to make new cars. You mean the same chips they put in trucks? Disrupted supply chains and other shortages explain the backlog for new trucks and trailers. Wabash closed out 2020 with a backlog of more than $1 billion in trailer orders.
4) Comparables (other freight markets). The spot rate for a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles increased to $9,631, up 5% from the previous week and 229% higher than a year ago. It's expected to be close to $20,000 by year end.

If you expect any of the above to improve significantly in the next 6 months I want some of what you're smoking. None of the problems have a simple, cheap fix. Even if you could magically deliver tens of thousands of computer chips to the truck manufacturers their production lines aren't set up to double or triple their capacity overnight to catch up. They'll be behind for YEARS. The only way freight rates are going down is if some other cost not on the list goes down enough to offset all the pressures to move rates up.

 

All it takes to crash rates is people stop buying #### they don't need. As soon as the free money stops the buying of unnecessary #### will too. The particular moment when enough of the population has their joint "oh ####" moment is very hard to predict. What it actually costs to run a truck has little bearing on rates, the fact that dollar a mile even exists on the board should be evidence enough of that.