Post Gordon ~ Thoughts, Commentary & Reflections

Behind the Scenes HTLD Stock Drama

So there's this high stakes, behind-the-scenes drama going on with HTLD stock that has a bunch of short sellers (who sold stock they didn't have speculating it would go down) holding over $100 million dollars worth (5,345,000 shares at the current $20.64) of shorts that they have to cover at some point. Their dilemma is that as they buy into the stock to cover, it pushes the price up, not down like they want.

If they shorted (sold) at $18 and wanted to cover (buy) at last Friday's close $20.64, they lose $2.64 per share. Dunno about you but that would take the fun out of the game for me. And 3 million of the shorts were probably sold at $12 or less. Like what's-his-face said, 'after a while it starts to add up'.

There's a saying that stocks rise on volume but fall on their own. It takes buyers to make a stock rise, but prices can fall precipitously with no volume at all because it has to fall far enough to attract new buyers willing to come in. (Volume can go both ways, though, and analyzing volume and which way the stock and the markets are moving is part of any trader's due diligence, a science unto itself.)

Just for giggles, let's look at HTLD volume. Here's short interest for May 15, 2013 (last year): 2,175,907 shares shorted with daily volume of 377,885.

So 2 million shares short, volume under 400,000 back in May 2013. Short positions start to rise in September 2013 (2,716,853) but volume still stays below 400,000 (315,037). By the end of October 2013, shorts have increased 50% to almost 3 million (2,907,351) with volume still below 400,00 (365,450).

Then in November, HTLD announces the acquisition of Gordon and volume explodes--doubles to 821,073. It soon settles around 500,000 shares daily. The acquisition of Gordon resulted in a lot more activity (up 25%--adding 100,000 shares trading daily) and that increased volume naturally--but not always--leads to a higher stock price.

If you had shorted HTLD before the acquisition, and there were almost 3 million shares short then, just try imagine the sweat and sleepless nights as HTLD stock price explodes up and quickly races towards $18/share. Let's say you shorted at $12, you're looking at a paper loss of $6 share if you cover at $18 (sell stock you don't have at $12 and have to pay $18 to cover). In fact, on Friday HTLD closed at $20.64!

Nope, sleep is not an option with 3 million shares short if you have to cover against a stock that exploded on the up side. At Friday's $20.64, that's over $24 million paper loss to short sellers who shorted at $12 or less.

Still shorts have CONTINUED to take big stakes in positions AGAINST Heartland stock since then. Short interest on April 30 of this year (2014) had risen to 5,345,151 (over 5 million shares short) on volume of 596,111 and that's about where volume's running now, in the 500 thousand shares per day range, way up in volume from the under 400,000 share days last May (a year ago and prior to the acquisition in November).

Why have the shorts almost doubled their short positions since the acquisition? Dunno. Very interesting and somebody OUGHT to be quaking in their undies and pajamas all night just thinking about it. Wondering why themselves.

Yeah, it's beyond my pay grade, too. I still like to think about it, though. Hey! You watch football don't you? And what chance would YOU have out there on the field? Or hockey. Yeah... it could get even bloodier for HTLD short sellers than the worst of hockey games. Tell me now that you would watch NASCAR for hours if you knew--guaranteed--there would be no wrecks...

But wrecks're kinda guaranteed, aren't they?! Like fights in hockey. Likely the same with HTLD short sellers. They will crash and burn if HTLD stock price doesn't take a nose dive. Stay tuned. Somebody's gonna get hurt. The squeeze play is on and it's a big money, high stakes game.

No, don't break the kids' piggy bank to get into this blood sport...


Written Saturday, May 10, 2014 at home, six miles north of Spencer, Indiana. Topic rehashed because for most of us this is pretty unfamiliar territory. All rights reserved.

 

Weight Restrictions

Nothing to do with the truck--mine!! I was up 5 pounds, still 5 below the start of my bout with food poisoning when I got back from Prairie du Chien Friday. After thinking about what I had eaten there and back I wasn't too concerned. Indeed, Saturday morning I was down 8.5, after some shovel work on a trench on the property was back down 10 again, Sunday down 7 and this morning down 7. My size 38 jeans (had been wearing 40s and kinda tight) fit loose. All's good! I'll take it.

The main drag's all torn up here in Prairie du Chien and they keep changing the route. The way in this afternoon was different from Friday. I saw the blue yard dog and followed him in. Followed him out, too, but then he pulled into a large yard for empties. Continued on past, on my merry way and up ahead saw an eagle swoop down, scaring a smaller bird off as it pulled a fish out of what really is a plowed field but with the Mississippi two feet or better above flood stage fish get stranded out in the open.

Then I saw the 'No Thru Trucks'. Ugh! Okay, blind-sided it (rather easily, actually, with no traffic and plenty of room, good mirrors) to turn around. The way back's not the same as the way in just a couple hours ago!! What are they thinking? Or did the Universe just think I should see that eagle?

Dunno. I'll take it.

In 2008, we had a 100-year flood in Spencer and as the flood water receded in town you could grab these huge carp that were left stranded all over town. At least Prairie du Chien's not flooded like we were. Wet, yes. Not flooded. I was drenched just from Wal-Mart walking to the Mexican grill and there were small green frogs all over the pavement. Once again the Siete Mares (Seven Seas--seafood soup) is terriffic. Hope the eagle was satisfied with that fish.

Earlier in the day saw a small-ish bird of prey flying off with a small snake.

So there's a nail in my Right-Rear-Outer Tandem, down to 90 pounds right now. Found it flat with only 25-30 pounds air at the Mackinaw Dells Rest Area, about 3-1/2 hours out. Not sure how long I drove on it like that but it thumped good when I pulled out--maybe wasn't as good as I thought!!

25-30 pounds would take me out of service (OOS) and 18 points against my CDL and driving on it that way could ruin the tire itself. Notta good thing. Aired it up with my glad hand air-er upper, a long, red air hose with trailer glad hand attachment at one end and double-headed air wand at the other (so you can air up both the inner and outer tires from the emergency/supply, the red air line from tractor to trailer, under $30 at most truck stops).

Took about a half hour to get to 105 and did not hear any hissing or leaking. Found the nail at my next check stop, 52 miles down the road at another rest area. Aired the tire up to 110 to give me a few more miles. This company airs the steers to 110 and all others to 105.

Pulled off 50 miles further down the road and there was a Kwik Stop, so took no time to air the tire up to 110. Like I said, it's 90 pounds now and raining like bejeevers out. It'll wait 'til morning and Plan A is to nurse it (keep airing back up to 105-110) to the shop in Illinois, let them do the repair, avoid a road service call or stop at a tire center. (Tire center would be Plan B.)

Worry about that tomorra...


Written Monday, May 12, 2014 at Prairie du Chien. On the way back to the truck these inch-long (or less) frogs are in full-throated song. Very loud. In Indiana, we call them creepers and they raise a wonderful ruckus after a rain. But my clothes are so wet dunno how I could enjoy anything. The soup was great... again! Forgot all about my wet clothes. Funnee!! All rights reserved.

 

Promises, Freight Brokers and Explanations

The Illinois shop took care of the nail in my Right-Rear-Outer Tandem. Turns out the trailer has a full set of new Bridgestones--not the highest end, least rolling resistance but darn good tires. At first glance they thought the tire was ruined. After pulling the wheel off they had four mechanics in a pow-wow on it including Bob, THE-GUY-IN-CHARGE. They decided to try a plug but are not positive, so I'll watch it, put the air gauge on it rather than just thump it.

Now this job was 'sold' to me as one run to Prairie du Chien a week, an occasional back-to-back and just as often an occasional full week or more off. Sounds great! In fact, it sounded good enough to put my better-paying Haz job on hold to give this a go. But the darn schedule has me doing back-to-backs (2 runs weekly) all through the end of June.

So who calls this afternoon but the freight broker. Has 3 outbound loads.

Say what???

The Prairie du Chien has to get off the floor on the pickup date. Must. The receiver on this end is not so tight, so critical. In fact, we've been running up empty so far and the money load is light weight back. For years a guy named Vernon ran this out of Illinois until he had a serious wreck, then was diagnosed with a brain tumor and died about a month later. Ugh! Apparently the drivers after him just never put it together as well as Vernon.

Recently they pushed it over to the Yard Boss and added this to his little fleet.

Got an explanation today for the back-to-backs rather than weekly runs. There's a model change happening at Company 'C'--with Company 'A' being Prairie du Chien, 'B' being the receiver for Prairie du Chien's stuff and Company 'C' the whole raison d'etre (reason for being). While the old model ramps down--still needs product; the new model ramps up--needs product.

Why didn't YARD BOSS know about this? Eventually the old model goes away and we really, really should get to one run a week.

Well, I hope so.

The outbound load pays $700 for 395 miles, picks up in Illinois and delivers in Iowa. So the new wrinkle is I grab that, deliver and proceed to Prairie du Chien. Now, if this was the Haz outfit where we're paid on percentage, I'd get 25%. This outfit pays mileage--oh, oh... is Vic going to take it in the shorts? We'll see. Yard Boss says they'll make it worth my trouble.

Ah, we'll see, we'll see...


Written Wednesday morning, May 14, 2014 at home, six miles north of Spencer, Indiana. All rights reserved.

 

A Little Gift Wrapping

This morning as I-74 came into view, Grace Slick sang to me that 'you need to find somebody to love'. Hell, I'd be happy just taking a little of the edge off.

Does Gracie have any candidates for me, I wondered. Let's see, need dog and chicken friendly, handy as a helper (or better) with woodworking tools, compost and other projects around the property. Need someone who reads, literate, a gal who likes to talk about what she's read with a sense of humor (no nudges need apply--been there, done that), maybe an artist or musician, musical would be nice.

Eclectic tastes. Of course, to just take the edge off a lot of those 'somebody to love' items go out the window. But, boy, have those led me to major, major complications. It's like buying a car you don't really like all that much and three years later you're still driving it...

When I got to the yard last night the tire repair had failed--and they were so nice! Right-Rear-Outer Tandem had less than 60 pounds. What were my options? Well, in a drenching rain with no cover could call Gary the Local Mechanic out... nah. Or sit tight until morning and have Gary fix it in the morning--if it weren't still raining like Noah's flood.

I could proceed to the Illinois shop where they had plugged--and failed to fix--the flat I got from the nail I picked up somewhere. Gotcha! So off to Illinois I went. Aired the tire up at the Pilot in Brazil, Indiana off I-70. Too drenching wet to try my glad hand air hose thingy.

The day crew with Bob-the-Guy-in-Charge had been fantastic, I thought. The night crew was... different. Told me to go sit in the break room. Hey! I'm tired! Go sit in the break room. A little over an hour later a mechanic comes out for me and tells me I'm good to go. "How'd you fix it?" I asked. "We plugged it again," he answered. My blood pressure immediately shot up.

"Can you guarantee that tire won't have 50 pounds again in the morning?" I demanded. He allowed that he could not. "Then you're risking our valuable Prairie du Chien account for a TIRE," I emphasized. "Just doing what my boss told me to do," he shrugged. "Who's your boss?" "Mike," he says.

Well, Mike was the guy who sent me to the break room. I tell him about my pick up in Illinois in the morning, my delivery in Iowa and all that had to happen tomorrow as well as my pick up in Prairie du Chien. "Are you going to risk the Prairie du Chien account over a TIRE?????"

Mike rolled over just that fast. "We can put a new tire on," he replied. "Okay, let's do it," I said. "Now where's a truck that I can stretch out in?" "Take any out on the line in front," Mike says.

The gift wrapping comes up in the next post...


Written May 15, 2014 at Prairie du Chien, Wisconsin, kicking back in the truck while live loading. More to follow. All rights reserved.

 

Live Loads vs Drop-and-Hook

You know, at least so far, these live loads take less time than Gordon's drop-and-hooks, which always took more than an hour, usually 1-1/2 to 2 hours, sometimes more!!

And Gordon drop-and-hooks are a lot more work, not a good kind of exercise: spot trailer (it's always super tight), climb out of truck, do a walk-around to check lights and inspect, roll down landing gear, disconnect hoses, climb back up into truck. You're in this early twilight, you feel punchy since you've been in the truck so long and, hey! You know it's night but you don't know what night or what day, just that it's late, late, late.

Reverse that over in the empty lot to get a trailer to take with you.

Figure you roll up to a Wal-Mart DC in the right, out-side lane, the inside, left lane being reserved for Wal-Mart trucks or companies pulling Wal-Mart trailers. It can take a half hour or more just to get to the front of the line, take your special-magic-number to security and heaven help you if you misplaced that number you wrote down off the QualComm. Go back and get it, dummy!!

Then, if loaded, find the loaded lot, spot your trailer where they told you and then head over to where they spot empties and search for one of yours. No, you can't take that Werner trailer. You won't get out of the gate. Oh, that Gordon still has a seal on it? Shucks! Get back in the truck and search for another, and another... Have to stop at the guard shack on the way out and 5 trucks in front of you, so you wait. When it's your turn you run back, open the doors and then you get your signed or stamped bills unless they gave them to you on the way in. There's always something...

For anyone (most of you) who have never been to a Wal-Mart DC (distribution center) or similar for any of the big box companies, trust me, a quick live load is a good thing in comparison. Get set in position to back to the dock, open your doors and bump the dock. Boom! My morning live load took 20 minutes, my delivery in Iowa--they put three forklifts and a helper on it and I was done in 15 minutes. Then in Prairie du Chien, I was in the gate, loaded, bills signed and out the gate in about an hour. Very cool.

With Haz, for example, it can take 1-1/2 hours just to sign bills, figure out your placards and get them secured (taped) on the trailer or tanker or the flip-flops set. Will it always be this good like today's first live load, then live delivery, and finally the live load here in Prairie du Chien? Oh, Hell, no.

But here's the sweetener, the gift wrap. They decided they'd pay this outbound from Illinois to Iowa as a completely separate load, despite that they pay mileage. So Vic gets $150 for the Illinois-Iowa, $329 for the Prairie du Chien-Indiana and $53 more if diverted to a warehouse for the Prairie du Chien.

Very cool. Could it be done in two days, each a little over 8 hours driving and 2-3 hours live loading/unloading? Well, yeah, sure. One night layover and a little more getting properly set up for the load out of Illinois. Okay, I'll take it: $150 + $329 = $479, that's a nice two-day, part-time job and even the back-to-backs start to look promising, attractive even.


Written May 15, 2014 from the Mexican grill in Prairie du Chien and once again a killer bowl of Siete Mares (Seven Seas) seafood soup. All rights reserved.

 

Inadvertently Killed My Parrot

Saw a Gordon on US 61 south of Maquetoka, Iowa pulling a Wal-Mart trailer northbound. First time I've seen that. So far not as rainy as yesterday (Thursday, May 15, 2014) and Wednesday night. Taking a break at the Spoon River Rest Area on 1-74E, heading back to Indiana.

So suddenly pay-wise this new job is competitive with Haz due to the extra $150 and no need to stop at every Tom and Harry's railroad tracks. Very cool! Who knows, maybe this job will turn out. Had been concerned also how this million-mile ISX would handle the hills with 44,000 but it did not disappoint.

Surprises me how much of a stimulant and motivator a bump in pay makes. I'll take it. While they put on a 'new' tire at the Illinois shop Wednesday night, it's not a new tire, it's a used tire and they picked out one with probably the worst rim they could, spray painted thinly with white spray paint, although the tire itself looks darn good. Happy to have it, frankly.

What a problem sliding the tandem yesterday morning at the shipper in Illinois, though. Had no problem running it all the way back when empty, usually have in 10th hole or so. Well, for that load, 16 empty holes from the tail of the trailer did the trick. Ended up with 11,420 on steers, 34,140 on drives and 33,980 on the tandems. Hey, 3579 my first truck with Gordon weighed almost that much on the steers with trailer empty.

Cascadias are h-e-a-v-y. The last two pallets were six feet in from the tail and there's no reason to move tandems from where they are now unless someone else uses it while I'm off and has to move them for some reason.

Anyone who has worked for Gordon has beaucoup experience sliding tandems, all the way back for Wal-Mart, up to 10th hole or so for running, for easier turns. Shortens your turning as though you had a 45-foot trailer or maybe a smidge or two more instead of a 53 footer.

Just couldn't seem to get it to move without pins wedging against one side or the other. It's a pain in the rump with this trailer even after the Illinois shop lubed the rails with silicone spray. Maybe try Howe's next, I think.

Oh! And the dead Parrot?? My headset. Foolishly went repeatedly out into that drenching rain yesterday with it still on with worst from truck at Wal-Mart parking lot to the Mexican grill for Siete Mares.

And you thought I had a bird in the truck, eh?

Might if I could...


Written May 16, 2014 at the Spoon River Rest Area, I-74 eastbound. All rights reserved.