You look like the one of not many others that can make it. Right now you can find great prices on equipment. You'll need to find your own customers for a local work. You already should know a lot of them, since you're a local driver.
This is my channel - there’s another 2 stories on there that may be of interest to you. @zmster2033 story was interesting in that he had no experience - as was @staceydude . If you have the time to watch and reflect, they may help - I was 10 years in company and financially stable before diving off the cliff - in 2015 when it was mediocre to say the least. Good luck.
And if you’re looking to lease on - this is my journey - 9 years in. The journey begins - purchased a truck.
No, it’s likely not your only skill. But after 9 years you probably realize your efforts are worth more than the current compensation. It took me 10 to understand that. The passion comes along with the - as @Ruthless says “Pride in Professionalism”. His interview is in there too. After 20 years in, it loses its luster day to day, but I’m not ready to pull the knobs for the last time just yet.
If you want to stay local look around your area for trucks that stay local and see what they do. Construction, Ag, etc...
There are already lots of local guys in phx it’s competitive. Do potential customers in phx need more? Find out. If they don’t, you’ll be hurting. If you fail to find customers in phx you may have to sell the truck or punch out to an area that has a shortage.
Winters coming. I’d suggest at least waiting til February or March. Everything slows in winter, can’t build when it’s frozen. Trickle down, auto people striking, It all rolls down hill. (Auto parts won’t be moving, vehicles, etc)
You'd have to find direct shippers. at a time when every other swingin jimmy has already had that idea. Relying on a load board you'll be broke quick. Guys I know in decent markets that stay close enough to get home every weekend are grossing 5-5500$. PHX is far from a decent market. I'm with @Kenworth6969 on this one
Can you make it on the spot market taking scraps. Yes, but being in a strong market would be key. I have done well in phx but that’s as a tourist and not being based there.
Get a DAT trial account and take a look, you'll see all the $1 per mile Phoenix loads. If you go to a place like Indianapolis or harrisburg/allentown, PA there's lots short Van runs all around those markets. In the years I did Van and wanted to make money on limited miles I found those places to be the best. If I wanted to do Van and be home often I'd be in one of those areas.